Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian pound has further to fall The Egyptian central bank appears to have shifted from keeping the pound pegged to the dollar to allowing a relatively gradual devaluation. We think this process has further to run and the pound could... 2nd January 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Dec.) The rise in home purchase mortgage applications in December took the run of increases to four months. Admittedly, they remain low by past standards. But at least these data add to the growing sense... 2nd January 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s industrial recovery struggling to gain momentum The slight fall in the Brazilian Manufacturing PMI in December suggests that while industry in Latin America’s largest economy continued to grow in the final months of last year, the pace of expansion... 2nd January 2013 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Land Registry Repeat Sales Index (Nov.) Alongside other house price data, today’s Land Registry figures showed that house prices increased marginally towards the end of 2012. But with 2013 set to be another challenging year for the economy... 2nd January 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Monti’s declaration will not end political uncertainty Mario Monti’s widely expected decision to head a “centrist alliance” probably increases the chances of Italy continuing its reform process, but the political situation remains uncertain. What’s more... 2nd January 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Singapore set for a brief recovery The Bank of Korea (BoK) kept its policy rate at 2.75% today, as was widely expected. Korea’s economic slowdown has bottomed out, but we think growth is unlikely to rebound strongly and that inflation... 2nd January 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Real consumer spending to stagnate in 2013 Christmas trading on the high street appears to have been reasonable, but unspectacular. Following a difficult 2012, we do not have high hopes for retailers in 2013. In fact, consumer spending is... 2nd January 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Manufacturing in Asia improves, sustained recovery unlikely The December PMIs showed further signs of improvement for Asia’s manufacturers. However, conditions overall remain weak. An improvement in global sentiment should give a boost to manufacturing sectors... 2nd January 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CIPS/Markit Report on Manufacturing (Dec.) The further improvement in the CIPS manufacturing survey in December tentatively suggests that output in the industrial sector stabilised at the very end of last year. But 2013 still looks set to be... 2nd January 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central Europe’s industry slides deeper into recession The latest manufacturing PMI data suggest that industry in Emerging Europe is still stagnating. There are signs that activity in Turkey is accelerating, but this is being offset by further weakness in... 2nd January 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final Manufacturing PMI (Dec.) The renewed fall in the euro-zone manufacturing PMI in December underlined the weakness of activity in the region at the end of last year. 2013 looks set to be another very challenging year for the... 2nd January 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fiscal cliff end-game still in sight, maybe The negotiations to avert the fiscal cliff are, as we always expected, going down to the wire. This is supposed to be political theatre. The failure of Boehner's "Plan B" illustrates that any deal has... 24th December 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly How will 2013 differ from 2012? Our bearish call a year ago for moderate to weak GDP growth, subdued inflation and prolonged low interest rates is looking prescient now that the slumping housing market threatens to upset Canada's... 24th December 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly 2013 to bring more of the same The economy seems to be finishing 2012 on a pretty weak note, quite probably dropping into a “triple-dip” in the final quarter. The big picture is that the economy has been flatlining for over a year... 24th December 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Armageddon postponed The European Central Bank’s promises helped to prevent Armageddon in the euro-zone in 2012. But it will have to put its money where its mouth is in 2013 and the risk of disappointment is high... 24th December 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly What to expect from Asia in 2013 Emerging Asia will remain a bright spot in the global economy in 2013. Weak external demand from the developed world will hamper Asia’s exports, but subdued inflation will provide room for more policy... 24th December 2012 · 1 min read
