Africa Economics Update Big shifts in monetary policy unlikely in the first half of 2013 A combination of renewed optimism over the state of the global economy and an acceleration in regional inflation suggests that the interest rate cuts that had looked imminent in some parts of sub... 3rd January 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Another year of stagnation lies ahead The first news of the new year has been modestly encouraging. Nonetheless, it is hard to see where any meaningful growth will come from this year. We have cut our forecast for GDP growth this year... 3rd January 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican industry may not be as strong as the PMI survey suggests We suspect that the record high reading from the Mexican manufacturing PMI in December paints a false picture of strength. Other surveys have been weaker, and the hard data suggest that activity... 3rd January 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Dec. 12) The latest fiscal data support the view that both Italy and Spain will fail to meet their fiscal goals for 2012 as a whole. 3rd January 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Europe lagging behind in EM recovery Emerging market manufacturing grew at its fastest pace in more than 18 months in December, according to the latest PMI data. However, the improvement in performance was concentrated in Asia and Latin... 3rd January 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Bullish headlines conceal underlying weaknesses The performances of many commodity prices have been more nuanced than the headlines might suggest. This is clearest in the case of agriculturals, where far more attention is still being paid to the... 3rd January 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus What to expect from Brazil in 2013 Brazil’s recovery will continue in 2013 but growth is likely to be lacklustre by historic standards. Above target inflation will prevent further policy support in the first few months of the year, but... 3rd January 2013 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Credit Conditions Survey (Q4) & Construction PMI (Dec.) The tone of both of today’s commercial property data releases was downbeat. Although the latest Bank of England survey showed that credit supply in the sector has improved slightly, borrowers are not... 3rd January 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Nov. 12) The latest euro-zone monetary data brought no signs of any easing in the severe credit constraints facing both households and companies in the single currency area. 3rd January 2013 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Dec.) Today’s data from the Nationwide showed that house prices fell by 1% over 2012. With another challenging year for the economy ahead, further falls are likely. 3rd January 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Credit Conditions Survey (Q4) & Productivity (Q3) The Bank of England’s latest Credit Conditions Survey provided further evidence that the positive impact of the Funding for Lending Scheme (FLS) is building. What’s more, the beneficial effects are... 3rd January 2013 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Ending the year on a high Jobs growth probably accelerated in December, as a few more employees finally returned to work after the disruptions caused by superstorm Sandy. Our econometric model suggests that non-farm payroll... 2nd January 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Going nowhere Over the past five years, the economy has been through three Rs: recession, recovery and relapse. It is hoped that 2013 will see the start of a fourth R, revival. However, we think that the economy... 2nd January 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fiscal cliff deal falls a long way short of what is needed The fiscal cliff deal approved by both Houses of Congress to avert most of the scheduled tax increases is better than nothing, but it didn’t include a provision to raise the debt ceiling, and the... 2nd January 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Dec.) The very modest rebound in the ISM manufacturing index to 50.7 in December, from 49.5, illustrates that the factory sector ended last year still caught between the cross-fire of a global economic... 2nd January 2013 · 1 min read
