Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish easing cycle - gradual for now Polish interest rates will be reduced further over the coming few months but, for now at least, the stabilisation of the economy in the final quarter of last year appears to have dissuaded the MPC... 9th January 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chilean peso to end the year below 500/US$ A strong start to the year for the Chilean peso has led to renewed speculation that the central bank will be forced to intervene in FX markets to weaken the currency. While intervention is possible... 9th January 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Stirring property sector reawakens over-investment fears Property construction in China still needs to slow further to return the real estate sector to a sustainable path. Accordingly, the recent pick-up in investment by developers should not be welcomed... 9th January 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Constitutional crisis weighs on Egyptian economy The latest PMI data suggest that Egypt’s constitutional crisis took a heavy toll on the economy at the end of last year. By contrast, activity in the Gulf economies is holding up well, buoyed by... 9th January 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Trade (Nov.) Following Friday’s disappointing results from the CIPS/Markit report on services, November’s trade data provided another reminder that the economy is likely to have contracted in the last quarter of... 9th January 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Regional growth holding up relatively well A slew of GDP data released since the Christmas period show that growth in a number of sub-Saharan Africa’s smaller economies slowed in the second half of 2012, but nevertheless confirm that the... 9th January 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Crumbling BRICs The economic outlook for the emerging world has brightened with most regions on course for a pick-up in growth in early 2013. But expectations for a rapid and sustained rebound are likely to be... 8th January 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Euro-zone commercial property faces weak start to the year This morning’s EC survey suggests that euro-zone commercial property markets ended 2012 on a low note. What’s more, past form suggests that the weakening in economic sentiment already seen is... 8th January 2013 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Do tenant departures signal a looming peak in West End office rents? Anecdotal evidence suggests that there has recently been a rise in the number of tenants deciding to migrate away from the West End office market because of high occupation costs. It is difficult to... 8th January 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How far and how quickly will the Egyptian pound fall? With the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) loosening its grip on the pound, the key question is whether the authorities will succeed in overseeing an “orderly” devaluation of the currency. If an IMF deal... 8th January 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Outlook brightens (a little) for Argentina in debt dispute Events have recently swung back in Argentina’s favour in its dispute with holdout bondholders. Despite this, there remains a significant risk of a default over the course of this year. What’s more... 8th January 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Debate over size of Russian outflows misses the point A spat towards the end of last year over the true scale of capital flight from Russia risks missing the bigger picture, which is that capital continues to flow out of the country in the first place... 8th January 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is the New Year optimism about the economy justified? 2013 has begun with more optimism about prospects for the global economy. The latest survey evidence suggests many countries ended 2012 with greater momentum than they had a few months earlier, but we... 8th January 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Dec.), Unemp. & Retail Sales (Nov.) Despite the small rise in economic sentiment in December, the latest batch of eurozone data still presented a decidedly downbeat picture of the state of the currency union’s economy at the end of last... 8th January 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus What would Scottish independence mean for the remaining UK? We think that Scotland’s exit from the Union would be unlikely to benefit the rest of the UK and could even represent a net economic cost. The UK would probably retain some of the disadvantages of... 8th January 2013 · 1 min read
