UK Data Response Industrial Production (Nov.) November’s disappointing UK industrial production and construction figures provided yet more evidence that the economy probably contracted in the fourth quarter of last year. 11th January 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Nov. 12) November's paltry 0.1% m/m gain in export volumes is a discouraging sign for fourth-quarter GDP growth. Overall, the data suggest that the risks to our 1.5% annualised fourth-quarter GDP growth lie... 11th January 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Nov. 12) The unexpected widening in the trade deficit to a seven-month high of $48.7bn in November, from $42.1bn, is not good news for fourth-quarter GDP growth. It looks like GDP growth was between 1.0% and 1... 11th January 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update "Fiscal stimulus" just more of the same In announcing yet another fiscal stimulus package, heavy on public works spending and subsidies for popular projects, Japan’s new government is simply repeating what the others have done before. If... 11th January 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Emerging European property markets won't survive 2013 unscathed The results from this week’s EC survey suggest that, for most of Emerging Europe, commercial property occupier demand probably stagnated or deteriorated in the final quarter of last year. Hungary was... 11th January 2013 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack Positive end to 2012, but 2013 will bring further price falls The Funding for Lending Scheme has helped to ease conditions in the mortgage market somewhat, leading to a marginal improvement in housing market activity. But we expect unemployment to start to rise... 11th January 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korea's rate-cutting cycle has further to go The Bank of Korea (BoK) kept its policy rate at 2.75% today, as was widely expected. Korea’s economic slowdown has bottomed out, but we think growth is unlikely to rebound strongly and that inflation... 11th January 2013 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Dec.) Freezing weather drove food prices and inflation higher last month but, as we head into the Chinese New Year period, underlying price pressures appear subdued. 11th January 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Adding R&D will boost the level of US GDP The inclusion later this year of capitalised research and development (R&D) expenditure in the national accounts will boost the level of GDP by up to 3%, with most of that additional spending being... 10th January 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Tentative signs of improvement Recent months have seen a small, but encouraging, improvement in some euro-zone activity indicators, particularly in the peripheral economies like Greece. However, in most cases, those indicators... 10th January 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB dampens hopes of further policy action The European Central Bank (ECB) appears content to sit on the sidelines for now and hope that the recent stabilisation of the euro-zone debt crisis continues. Eventually, however, President Draghi’s... 10th January 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Downward trend in housing investment will persist Housing starts continued to ease during the fourth quarter of last year, to an annualised 202,855, from 221,709 in the prior quarter. Nevertheless, it is possible that overall residential investment... 10th January 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Fiscal cliff deal extends Mortgage Debt Relief Act The 11th hour deal to avert the fiscal cliff included a one-year extension of the Mortgage Debt Relief Act. The Act, which frees homeowners from paying tax on forgiven mortgage principal, has become... 10th January 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update New NBH Governor could catch markets off guard The appointment of Hungary’s new central bank Governor, due to be announced next month, has the potential to shatter the recent calm in the local financial markets. In this Watch, we assess the... 10th January 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenyan rates unlikely to fall much further The Central Bank of Kenya’s larger-than-expected 150bp rate cut to 9.50% today suggests that the easing cycle may not yet be at an end, but with inflation close to bottoming out, growth now picking up... 10th January 2013 · 1 min read
