UK Economics Chart Pack A lacklustre festive season 2012 seems to have ended on a fairly underwhelming note with consumers relatively cautious over the festive period. 18th January 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Uni. of Mich. Consumer Confidence (Jan.) The slight drop in the University of Michigan's measure of consumer confidence to a one-year low of 71.3 in January, from 72.9, suggests that the actual onset of lower after-tax incomes in the New... 18th January 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Nov.) November's 1.6% m/m rebound in manufacturing sales volumes is encouraging, though not strong enough to offset the previous month's decline of 2.2% m/m. All things considered, the risks to our... 18th January 2013 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Do recent administrations justify retail rent forecast downgrades? The recent clutch of retailer failures probably won’t be the last and they increase the downside risks to rents this year. But not all retailers are struggling and recent administrations are more... 18th January 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Economy picks up speed, recovery’s durability in doubt Today’s Q4 GDP data confirm the turnaround in China’s economy but they show too that it is reliant on the single engine of investment. Continued policy easing would be needed to prolong the... 18th January 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Dec.) December’s drop in the official measure of retail sales volumes confirmed that it was a fairly lacklustre festive period for the high street and provided more evidence that the UK has slipped into a... 18th January 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Spanish industrial rents: manufacturing to fall further behind logistics Steeper falls in manufacturing output than in consumer spending in Spain help to explain the recent underperformance of Spanish manufacturing property rents relative to the logistics sector. And if we... 17th January 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Cypriot bail-out struggles continue The Troika and the Cypriot Government have reached a stalemate, with the latter refusing to agree to the terms for a vital bail-out. An agreement should be reached after next month’s election and... 17th January 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fiscal uncertainty likely to be an ongoing problem Regardless of how the current debt ceiling negotiations pan out, the bigger problem is that there has been an almost complete breakdown in the working relationship between both sides in Congress. As a... 17th January 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Gathering momentum? Asian growth looks to have picked up late last year and is likely to fare well in the near term. However, growth in 2013-14 is unlikely to be strong due to lacklustre external demand and structural... 17th January 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Dec. 12) December’s surge in housing starts tops off an encouraging year for homebuilders. Given how far below normal levels starts remain even now, we expect further strong gains during 2013. 17th January 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Has the Saudi oil price target moved to $110? We continue to expect the price of a barrel of Brent to drop back below $100 this year, despite recent speculation that cuts to Saudi production signal an increased willingness to allow oil prices to... 17th January 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Which EMs will benefit from rising labour costs in China? China’s low-end exports are now losing global market share. Rapidly rising labour costs in China mean this trend is likely to continue. Although many countries can now compete with China on labour... 17th January 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: rising inflation narrows space for further easing A recent pick-up in inflation has reduced the space for further policy easing in Brazil, and we expect the Selic rate to remain at 7.25% until at least mid-year. Further ahead, if we are right to... 17th January 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Solid but unspectacular outlook for South African retail sector Growth in South African retail sales beat consensus expectations in November. But with consumer confidence falling due to rising inflation and fears over job security, the outlook for private... 17th January 2013 · 1 min read
