UK Housing Market Update Why has the FLS not helped bring down SVRs? The Funding for Lending Scheme (FLS), alongside other interventions, has helped bring down both long and short-term wholesale funding costs. But to date lenders have only passed these savings through... 17th January 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Bulgaria's lost decade The Bulgarian economy is in the middle of a lost decade. A lack of competitiveness against the backdrop of a fixed exchange rate, coupled with the country’s close proximity to the euro-zone’s weakest... 17th January 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Sharp fall in the pound wouldn’t necessarily be a bad thing Concerns are building that sterling is on the brink of a sharp fall. While certainly possible, it is not as inevitable as some appear to assume. And it might not be such a bad thing in any case. 16th January 2013 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Tightening bias will be dropped before year end We expect the Bank of Canada to continue justifying its tightening bias next week on the basis of high household debt. Before year end, however, we expect the Bank to drop talk of rate hikes. The weak... 16th January 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Dec. 12) The annual growth rate of our measure of the broadest M3 monetary aggregate hit a three-and-a-half-year high of 6.4% in December, with the growth rates of the narrower M1 and M2 aggregates also... 16th January 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices & Industrial Production (Dec. 12) Inflation dipped further below the Fed's 2% target in December, leaving it free to focus its policy efforts on reducing the still elevated unemployment rate. 16th January 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China's share of global FDI rising, not falling We are sceptical that published FDI data tell us much about China’s economic outlook. For what it’s worth though – and contrary to the headlines – today’s figures suggest the China is increasing its... 16th January 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus New mortgage rules won't hamper housing recovery The Consumer Finance Protection Bureau’s ability-to-repay rule, and within that its definition of a qualified mortgage, will not hamper the housing recovery. Mortgage-dependent buyers aren’t playing... 16th January 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Fiscal deficits squeezing investment in resource-poor economies With all eyes on Egypt’s currency crisis, it’s easy to forget the fiscal crisis hitting the resource-poor Arab countries at the same time. Gaping budget deficits are squeezing out investment and... 16th January 2013 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Bold headlines, but little new of substance? We expect the two-day meeting of the Bank of Japan’s Policy Board to conclude next Tuesday (22nd) with a joint statement on policy cooperation between the Bank and the government, the unveiling of a... 16th January 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African PMI slumps again The slump in South Africa’s PMI reading for December indicates that the manufacturing sector continued to feel the effects of weak demand from key export destinations, as well as constraints in the... 16th January 2013 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Will we see an FLS-driven rise in commercial property lending? The problems of legacy loans, along with increased regulation, are both significant barriers to the Funding for Lending Scheme (FLS) boosting new commercial property lending. But there are signs that... 16th January 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ruble flexibility is for real Some commentators are starting to question the extent to which Russia has moved towards greater currency flexibility in recent years. We see little to justify these doubts. Improving global sentiment... 16th January 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook On the mend? The world economy is likely to grow at a similar pace this year as in 2012. Some downside risks have diminished, at least for now, including the threat of euro break-up, the US fiscal cliff and a... 15th January 2013 · 1 min read
