Europe Economics Update LTRO repayments to give mixed signals The expected repayment of some ECB LTRO funding should add to signs that the region’s banking system is on the mend. But it will also underline the weakness of demand in the region and could fuel... 24th January 2013 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Steady, but not spectacular Our econometric model suggests that payroll employment rose by a respectable, but hardly spectacular, 150,000 in January. Meanwhile, the annual benchmark revision may show that payrolls rose by more... 24th January 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Jan.) Although indicating a modest slowdown in sales growth, January’s CBI Distributive Trades Survey still suggested that retailers enjoyed a reasonable level of activity in January. But signs of optimism... 24th January 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Record trade deficit only partly due to yen strength Japan’s record trade deficit in 2012 mainly reflected the fragility of the global economic recovery and a persistently high bill for energy imports, with currency strength playing a secondary role... 24th January 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Jan.) January’s flash euro-zone Purchasing Managers’ Indices (PMIs) provided further evidence that the pace of contraction in the euro-zone economy has decelerated at the start of this year. But it is too... 24th January 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Weak economy bolsters case for Polish rate cuts There is a growing sense in the markets that the Polish National Bank could pause its easing cycle next month, but given the weakness of the most recent data, we think the case is less clear cut. For... 24th January 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada backing down on tightening bias In a surprise climb down, the Bank of Canada admitted that the need to withdraw policy stimulus is less imminent, partly reflecting the weaker global economic outlook, but mainly because the housing... 23rd January 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Risks to the Warsaw office rental outlook are building The recent news flow from Poland suggests that the office supply pipeline in Warsaw is growing while occupier demand is softening. A sharp rise in the office vacancy rate now looks unavoidable this... 23rd January 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What scope for a virtuous circle? While the improvement in financial market sentiment seen over recent months should have some beneficial effects on the euro-zone’s troubled economies, hopes that a “virtuous circle” will bring an end... 23rd January 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Dec. 12) A lack of demand, rather than the level of interest rates or problems with credit supply, remains the key factor holding back broad monetary growth in Japan. 23rd January 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Are we really on the verge of interest rate cuts in Mexico? The dovish tone of the statement that accompanied last week’s decision by the Mexican central bank to keep interest rates on hold has fuelled speculation that policy could soon be eased. Growth has... 23rd January 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Phoney “currency wars” could still have real effects The Bank of Japan’s adoption of an explicit 2% inflation target, as called for by the new government, has revived talk of “currency wars”, especially as this new target will be backed up by “open... 23rd January 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Should we worry about the Bank of Japan’s independence? The Bank of Japan’s adoption of an explicit 2% inflation target after this was called for by the new government has added to fears that central banks worldwide will be forced to monetise public debt... 23rd January 2013 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed still looking for substantial improvement in labour market The first FOMC meeting of the New Year, which concludes next Wednesday (30th January), is unlikely to bring any major changes coming, as it does, only six weeks after the Fed expanded its large-scale... 23rd January 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC mins. (Jan.), Speeches by King and Cameron The minutes of January’s MPC meeting suggested that the views of its members are becoming increasingly polarised, indicating that next month’s decision over whether or not to provide the economy with... 23rd January 2013 · 1 min read
