Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary's easing cycle on shaky foundations Hungary’s external vulnerabilities mean that the scope for further interest rate cuts will depend on the forint holding up. The bigger picture, however, is that even if policy is eased further... 29th January 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Federal deficit elimination goal may face longer delays An underperforming economy will make it tougher for the federal government to eliminate its budget deficit worth just over 1% of GDP. Although some headway has been made this year, weak underlying... 29th January 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Middle East Markets Monitor (Jan.) The Egyptian pound has fallen sharply over the past month after the Central Bank of Egypt loosened its grip on the currency. We think the pound could fall by a further 10-15% to around 7.5/US$... 29th January 2013 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Land Registry Repeat Sales Index (Dec. 12) Today’s Land Registry data provides further evidence that house prices recovered towards the end of 2012. But with anaemic GDP growth expected over 2013, any sustained rise in house prices looks... 29th January 2013 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response RICS Commercial Property Market Survey (Q4 12) Today’s RICS survey showed that occupier demand remains soft and that surveyors envisage unchanged rental values over the next three to six months. That looks plausible to us, although the risks are... 29th January 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Can exporters shrug off the euro's rise? The euro’s appreciation over recent months may not necessarily prove disastrous for exporters. But with domestic demand likely to continue to contract, the strong currency reduces the chances of the... 29th January 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Slump in Polish growth strengthens case for further stimulus Preliminary data showing that Poland’s economy grew by 2.0% in 2012 masks a slump in domestic demand towards the end of last year that has seen household spending growth drop to its slowest rate since... 29th January 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India's stubborn inflation limits room for further loosening The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) met expectations that it would cut its key policy rate today. However, the accompanying policy statement suggests there may be only limited further policy loosening... 29th January 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombian interest rates to remain lower for longer The slowdown in Colombian growth has been driven as much by structural as by cyclical factors, and suggests that interest rates could remain low for an extended period. We expect at least one more... 29th January 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Consumer spending in London will continue to outperform Between 2006 and 2012 London was probably the only UK region to experience a real rise in consumer spending, of perhaps 0.7% a year. This particularly reflected growth in the financial, professional... 28th January 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Lumber: the Capital Economics view Lumber, or sawn timber as it is also known, is being added to our coverage of agriculturals from today. Despite a sharp rise in lumber prices last year and our expectations of only a lacklustre... 28th January 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Gap between Germany and France to widen Recent economic data suggest that France is lagging further behind Germany. If anything, we suspect that this gap will widen as the year goes on, leading tensions between the two countries to rise. 28th January 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Dec. 12) Business investment apparently enjoyed an unexpected renaissance over the final few months of last year, only getting stronger as the fiscal cliff deadline got closer. Durable goods orders increased... 28th January 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus Will New York City's housing market continue outperforming? House prices and residential sales activity in New York City look set to underperform the wider US housing market over the next few years. Valuations in NYC are less favourable than elsewhere, the... 28th January 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Rand plunges despite broad rally in EM currencies The South African rand has suffered a large sell-off over the past month, taking it below 9.00/US$ and leaving it at its lowest level against the US dollar in almost four years. Given that... 28th January 2013 · 1 min read
