Commodities Outlook Gains unlikely to be sustained throughout 2013 Improving business conditions and the positive sentiment in financial markets should support the prices of industrial metals and crude oil at least for the remainder of the first quarter and possibly... 1st February 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Inflation taking divergent paths across the region Inflation remains lower in both east and South Africa compared to west Africa, but a combination of slowing inflation in west Africa and the fact that central banks here set higher inflation targets... 1st February 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: still no sign of a pick-up in investment The stagnation in Brazilian industrial production in December means that the sector contracted once again in the final quarter of last year. What’s more, the drop in capital goods output suggests that... 1st February 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Jan.) & Unemployment (Dec.) January’s fall in euro-zone inflation is good news for consumers, but with unemployment still at a record high in December, incomes and spending will remain under severe strain. 1st February 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update January PMIs suggest industry faltering The January PMIs for emerging Asia were disappointing. Improving global sentiment should provide a small boost to Asian industry in coming months, but conditions overall are likely to remain weak. 1st February 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CIPS/Markit Report on Manufacturing (Jan. 13) January’s CIPS report on manufacturing supports other evidence that any upturn in industrial output at the start of the year will be short-lived. 1st February 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update PMIs show first signs of green shoots The latest batch of manufacturing PMI data from Emerging Europe provide the first signs that the region’s economy is turning around. However, for now at least, the recovery appears to be concentrated... 1st February 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update How concerning for property is the Russian economic slowdown? The Russian economy cooled at the end of 2012, as we had expected, and growth is likely to remain lacklustre this year. However, although there are signs that the slowdown may be affecting the office... 1st February 2013 · 1 min read
China Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jan.) China’s official PMI slumped last month, but this index is often choppy around Chinese New Year. We would put more weight on the continued rise in the alternative PMI from HSBC and Markit, as well as... 1st February 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Business confidence index points to better start to 2013 The recent improvement in small and medium sized business confidence points to a pick-up in economic growth in the first quarter, to around 2% annualised, roughly twice the pace of last quarter. We... 1st February 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation looks to have bottomed out Having dropped to a near-three-year low, EM inflation looks to have now bottomed out. Inflation is likely to rise further in the near term due to strengthening demandside pressures and increases in... 1st February 2013 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Draghi to shrug off currency concerns The continued improvement in financial market conditions and surveys of economic activity has taken some of the pressure off the ECB this month. We expect the Bank to strike a relatively hawkish tone... 31st January 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack New government triggers surge of optimism Japan’s economy appears to have suffered a second successive quarterly contraction at the end of 2012. The weakness was broad-based. Measures of industrial output, investment, consumer spending and... 31st January 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt's external risks mean policy easing is off the cards Growing strains in the balance of payments continue to prevent any loosening of monetary policy to support Egypt’s struggling economy. We don’t think there will be any scope to ease policy until the... 31st January 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update West to lead house price growth in 2013 We’re expecting US house prices to rise by around 5% this year, but a closer look at the regional picture suggests that the gains will be most pronounced in the West. 31st January 2013 · 1 min read
