US Economics Update Confidence will soon rise back after payroll tax hike hit Consumer confidence may be as much as 20 points lower than otherwise due to the effects of the payroll tax hike. But as long as employment continues to rise, gasoline prices don’t increase too much... 4th February 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Upbeat start to the year Further signs of an improvement in the Chinese economy, combined with data indicating that the euro-zone will probably fare better in Q1 than in Q4 2012, have helped to lift commodity prices so far in... 4th February 2013 · 1 min read
BoE Watch GDP drop may not push MPC into action Although a strong case could be made for resuming quantitative easing (QE) at this month’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, the Committee has given no indication that it is on the cusp of... 4th February 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Fading credit boom takes the shine off Latin America Signs that Latin America’s lending boom has faded support our belief that credit can’t continue to be as big an economic driver as in the recent past, and we expect GDP growth to ease this year... 4th February 2013 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response CIPS/Markit Construction PMI (Jan. 13) Overall construction activity edged down again in January, although the commercial property sector managed to hold steady. On past form, these data suggest that developers do not anticipate occupier... 4th February 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Euro-zone risks ease but banks remain fragile The continued improvement in sentiment towards the euro-zone has simultaneously eased external funding conditions for Emerging Europe’s banks and reduced the threat of financial contagion from the... 4th February 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Is yen weakness a threat to emerging Asia? The yen has significantly weakened against Asian currencies in the last few months. Given the similarity of many of their exports, Korean exporters look most vulnerable to a depreciating yen. However... 4th February 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Is Japan back in recession? The consensus is that Japan avoided two successive quarters of contracting GDP at the end of 2012, albeit only just. In contrast, we still expect a small decline. Looking ahead, we are tweaking our... 4th February 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canadian dollar headed even lower At a global level, stock markets have been buoyed by signs that economic outlook is improving. Unfortunately, held back by weak domestic demand, low inflation and narrowing interest rate differentials... 4th February 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Are the green shoots of recovery emerging? Last week’s euro-zone data confirmed that the economy will probably fare better in Q1 than in Q4 2012. But for now at least the euro-zone business surveys remain in recession territory. Of course, if... 4th February 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Why has sterling taken a pounding? Last week, the pound continued to depreciate, capping off the sterling trade-weighted index’s largest drop over a calendar month since February 2010. Sterling’s weakness against the euro seems... 4th February 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Are we wrong to shrug off the fall in GDP? Even after taking a step back and looking at the bigger picture, we still don’t believe that the fall in GDP in the fourth quarter is much of a concern. Contractions in government spending and... 4th February 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update What should the Fed make of the labour market? The mixed messages in January's labour market report underline how hard it is for the financial markets to gauge exactly what the Fed means by its loosely defined pledge, to continue with its... 1st February 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jan.) The increase in the ISM manufacturing index to a one-year high of 53.1 in January, from 50.2 in December, indicates that the improvement in global factory conditions, evident in the rebound in various... 1st February 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jan.) Coming on the heels of the unexpected dip in fourth-quarter GDP, January's Employment Report should help to soothe any lingering concerns that the economy is headed for a recession. 1st February 2013 · 1 min read
