China Activity Monitor Sharper recovery seen at end of 2012 The Capital Economics China Activity Proxy (CAP) points to a sharper economic turnaround than the official figures showed towards the end of last year. In the detail, data on cargo volumes back up... 30th January 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Dec.) December’s household borrowing figures provided further evidence that the Funding for Lending Scheme (FLS) is having a beneficial impact on credit growth. Nonetheless, the recovery in lending is... 30th January 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Could the spread between yields in Paris and Munich reverse sign? Recent data show that the French economy is lagging behind Germany. If we are right that this divergence will grow, the low levels of property yields in Paris relative to Munich look unsustainable... 30th January 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response GDP (Q4 12 1st Estimate) The 0.1% q/q decline in fourth-quarter GDP growth is going to get everybody very excited today, but this isn't the start of a new recession. First-quarter GDP growth is going to be pretty weak because... 30th January 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Sentiment picks up but growth still weak The outlook for Emerging Europe has brightened considerably at the start of the year. Equities have rallied while the latest survey data from key euro-zone export markets have picked up markedly... 30th January 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Fiscal credibility starting to unravel Hopes that yet more fiscal stimulus will transform the prospects for Japan’s economy, or at least make a meaningful difference to GDP in the next year or so, are overdone. The government’s credibility... 30th January 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Jan. 13) January’s rise in the euro-zone EC Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) provided further evidence that the improvement in market conditions seen over recent months is starting to have a moderately... 30th January 2013 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Dec. 12) Net commercial property lending was negative again in December and it seems likely that this pattern will continue for some time yet. However, it is encouraging that there remains little evidence of... 30th January 2013 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Dec. 12) Mortgage approvals resumed their upward trend in December. Whether this trend can continue may now depend upon the actions of the big lenders, who to date appear less keen to expand their mortgage... 30th January 2013 · 1 min read
Energy Watch Risks to oil prices remain on the downside The improvements in global economic conditions indicated by the latest manufacturing surveys, as well as the positive mood in financial markets, have already prompted us to revise our near-term oil... 29th January 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Jan. 13) The latest fiscal news from the periphery suggests that Greece, Ireland and Portugal met their fiscal goals for 2012 as a whole. 29th January 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (Jan.) The drop in the Conference Board measure of consumer confidence to a 14-month low of 58.6 in January, from 66.7, appears to have been driven by the recent payroll tax increase. Even if confidence does... 29th January 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Homeownership & Vacancy Rates & Case-Shiller (Q4/Nov) The fact that the housing recovery is being driven principally by investor demand means that the slight decline in the homeownership rate in the fourth quarter is unlikely to be the last. 29th January 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Brazil bucks the inflation slowdown Inflation has continued to slow in most countries in Latin America, with the notable exception of Brazil. Here, inflation has accelerated to 6% as supply constraints have aggravated core price... 29th January 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Companies running faster just to stand still While the economy may be entering a “triple-dip”, employment growth continues to be surprisingly strong. A look at which sectors are creating jobs suggests that part of the rise in employment reflects... 29th January 2013 · 1 min read
