Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Nov. 12) November's 0.3% m/m gain in GDP, following the slightly downward revised 0.1% advance the month before, almost insures that fourth-quarter GDP growth improved somewhat over the poor 0.6% annualised... 31st January 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: solid 2012 growth masks second half slowdown Preliminary data showing that Russia grew by a solid 3.4% in 2012 masks the fact that the economy slowed fairly sharply over the course of the year and is now growing by around 2% y/y. The recent... 31st January 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: trade deficit keeps pressure on the rand South Africa recorded its first ever December trade deficit in 2012, adding to concerns over its deteriorating current account position. This is likely to ensure that the rand remains weak over the... 31st January 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: equity outperformance unlikely to be sustained The recent rally in Argentine equities stands in stark contrast to a falling foreign currency bond market this year. A weak bond market performance is largely explained by a US court case which has... 31st January 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM recovery continues Our EM GDP Tracker suggests that the emerging market recovery is strengthening and that growth accelerated in the final months of last year. Asia and Latin America are still leading the recovery, but... 31st January 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Strong Q4 growth in the Philippines, but will it last? GDP growth in the Philippines remained strong in Q4, with the pace of expansion slowing only slightly from the previous quarter. Although we remain upbeat about medium-term prospects, growth is likely... 31st January 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Can companies get the recovery going? Companies represent the one sector of the economy which has the means to spend more and so kick-start a recovery. But we are doubtful whether this sector has the motive. A number of factors will... 31st January 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Jan.) Today’s news that house prices started the year with a modest rise provides some further evidence that the housing market is starting to respond to Government efforts to kick-start the sector. But it... 31st January 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan's growth likely to be lacklustre this year Today’s GDP data from Taiwan show that the economy ended 2012 on a strong note. But Taiwan remains vulnerable to a renewed deterioration in global sentiment, which we think is likely this year... 31st January 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Jan.) January’s modest uptick in consumer confidence is consistent with evidence from the CBI’s Distributive Trades survey that 2013 got off to a so-so start. But talk of a “triple-dip” recession following... 31st January 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed swaps one hawk for another The latest Fed statement offers little new, apart from a change in the resident hawk on the FOMC. We still expect QE to be maintained at $85bn per month until early 2014. 31st January 2013 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Fall in US Q4 GDP does not signal the start of a new recession 31st January 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Will weak consumer confidence hold back the recovery? Financial markets and many businesses have become more optimistic about the global economic outlook, but consumer confidence has typically remained weak. We expect households in the US and Europe in... 30th January 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jan.) Growth of the broad money supply is still quite strong, but it is heading in the wrong direction. Meanwhile, the recent loosening of credit conditions has not fed through into a meaningful pick-up in... 30th January 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Slower consumption growth to linger Slower growth in wages and salaries and lower consumer confidence suggest that real consumption growth slowed sharply in the fourth quarter, to only half the 3.8% annualised gain in the third. We... 30th January 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook A see-saw year ahead for risky assets We now think risky assets will generally fare quite well in the first half of 2013, as tension in the euro-zone continues to ease and the Fed expands its balance sheet further. We expect these factors... 30th January 2013 · 1 min read
