Global Markets Update Yen looks set for a correction The yen has already fallen to within touching distance of our mid-year forecast of 95 to the dollar, while the surge in the Nikkei has left it only a little short of our target of 11,600. However... 6th February 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Jan. 13) Mortgage applications for home purchase are still low by past standards, but at least they have been rising for five months now. That’s an encouraging sign that mortgage-dependent buyers are starting... 6th February 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Another tough year to get through Consumers will have to endure a further tough year. We no longer expect consumer spending to rise at all in real terms in 2013. But a recovery should start next year. 6th February 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update The strong euro won’t be all bad - just mostly The rise in the euro is not unambiguously bad for the euro-zone economy. But the negatives are likely to outweigh the positives. 6th February 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Inflation falls to three-year low Canada's headline annual inflation rate has fallen to its lowest level in over three years, suggesting that there is more slack in the economy than commonly perceived. With economic growth forecast to... 6th February 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM consumers go their separate ways Strong employment growth, coupled with favourable credit dynamics, should ensure that consumer spending continues to outperform in Emerging Asia over the coming years. By contrast, consumption looks... 6th February 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Surveyors sound alarm bells for French and Dutch rents The generally weak picture of European commercial property occupier markets portrayed by the latest RICS global survey is broadly consistent with our own views on the near-term prospects for rental... 6th February 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Recovery still uneven The latest hard data have confirmed that the euro-zone ended 2012 on a very weak note, but survey indicators for January have brought further evidence that the pace of contraction eased at the start... 6th February 2013 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Jan.) The boost to house prices seen at the end of 2012 did not continue into early 2013. The housing market is currently being supported by Government interventions, but with most measures still pointing... 6th February 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Monetary policy in flux As part of the question of how monetary policy can support the economy further, attention is turning to whether the policy framework might need to be reformed. A new framework won’t solve the UK’s... 6th February 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update More work needed to reduce budget deficit The latest projections from the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office show that, despite recent efforts to control spending and boost revenues, the Federal budget deficit will remain close to 4% of... 5th February 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Hopes of smooth handover at the BoJ may be wishful thinking Bank of Japan Governor Shirakawa’s announcement that he intends to leave office in March, a few weeks early, might ease the transition to a new leadership team. However, his move may not advance the... 5th February 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Payroll tax hike to hit January incomes hard The expiry of the payroll tax cut will contribute to what could be a 3.5% m/m slump in personal disposable income in January. We expect any decline in real consumption to be pretty modest, however... 5th February 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update TARGET2 still points to big problems While the recent slight reduction in TARGET2 imbalances echoes other signs of improvement in the euro-zone, they still point to serious underlying problems in the economy and banking sector. 5th February 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Spectre of triple-dip looms The contraction in GDP in the final quarter of last year means that the economy may have entered a triple-dip recession. This downturn now looks even more dismal by previous standards. Admittedly, the... 5th February 2013 · 1 min read
