China Economics Update Stalling credit growth points to limited economic rebound There were signs of strengthening developed world demand in China’s latest export data. Stronger growth in China is being reflected in rising imports. But with credit growth levelling off, a strong... 10th January 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil inflation could rise above 6% The rise in Brazilian inflation last month is particularly worrying since it came despite a moderation in food inflation. With plans to cut electricity tariffs now under threat from a drought that has... 10th January 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update More QE still in prospect (Jan 13) Although the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) left policy on hold again today, we expect to see more quantitative easing (QE) this year, as well as a possible shift towards more radical options. 10th January 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China's commodity imports lacklustre in December China’s imports of commodities continued to grow at a decent pace in 2012, setting new highs in many cases. However, the December data did not show much of an acceleration, with import volumes for... 10th January 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Ecuador: recent slowdown has further to run The pace of growth of Ecuador’s economy slowed substantially in 2012 and we expect this trend to continue over the current year. This is unlikely to put a serious dent in President Correa’s bid for re... 10th January 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update RPI inflation should still fall despite lack of reforms Given that the National Statistician has decided not to alter the way RPI inflation is measured, the RPI rate will continue to run above the CPI measure for the foreseeable future. However, we still... 10th January 2013 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Signs that the German economy is heading back into recession 10th January 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Alumina: the Capital Economics view Alumina is being added to our coverage of commodities from today. We expect the price of alumina, as shown by the MB alumina index, to rise from around $330 per tonne (FOB Bunbury, Australia) at... 9th January 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is a bubble forming in emerging market bonds? The yield of the JP Morgan EMBI+ index recently fell to its lowest ever level, prompting claims that a bubble is forming in dollar-denominated emerging market bonds. Although we think the current... 9th January 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is a bubble forming in emerging market bonds? The yield of the JP Morgan EMBI+ index recently fell to its lowest ever level, prompting claims that a bubble is forming in dollar-denominated emerging market bonds. Although we think the current... 9th January 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Rising oil and gas production to have small impact on GDP Even if US oil and gas production does continue to expand at the breakneck pace seen over the past few years, the overall impact on GDP growth will be muted. The mining sector as a whole accounted for... 9th January 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Euro-zone recession to deepen in 2013 While the lull in the euro-zone debt crisis has continued in recent months, the news on the region’s economy has remained distinctly downbeat. Despite some improvement towards the end of last year... 9th January 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Will there be any real change at the Bank of Japan? Expectations that a higher inflation target and a “new accord” with the government will prompt much more aggressive monetary easing have continued to weaken the yen. However, a closer look at the... 9th January 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Slow start to 2013 in the US will hold back EMs The worst case scenarios associated with the US “fiscal cliff” have been avoided, but the US is still likely to get off to a slow start to the year. It will hold back growth in EMs, but it will not be... 9th January 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Hopes abound for an unlikely housing soft landing The sharp slowdown in existing home sales is grim news for the new housing industry, which continues to build above population requirements. We expect these growing demand and supply imbalances to... 9th January 2013 · 1 min read
