Venezuelan economic policy looks set to remain in limbo until the future of the President Hugo Chávez is resolved. Devaluation of the bolivar, which we had expected early next year, may be delayed, while renewed speculation that the opposition will edge closer to the presidency as a result of Mr. Chávez’s illness will probably prompt a fresh rally in the bond market. The bigger picture, however, is that the economy faces a torrid year in 2013 if oil prices fall, no matter who is in power.
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