Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia struggles as the rest of Emerging Europe recovers Today’s release of 2013 Russian GDP data suggests that while growth in the rest of Emerging Europe started to recover towards the end of last year, growth in Russia remained extremely sluggish. The... 31st January 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack South Africa tightens policy, others may soon follow suit The South African Reserve Bank responded to the turmoil in EM currency markets by unexpectedly hiking interest rates this month. Rates were raised by 50bp to 5.50% and, looking ahead, we think policy... 31st January 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Jan.) & Unemployment (Dec.) The latest euro-zone unemployment and inflation data maintained the pressure on the ECB to do more to ward off deflation risks, perhaps as soon as next week. 31st January 2014 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Payrolls rebound as weather effects fade Our econometric model suggests that the sharp slowdown in jobs growth in December, which resulted in payroll employment rising by just 74,000, was due to temporary factors that are unlikely to have... 31st January 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Jan.) January’s GfK/NOP confidence survey suggested that consumers started the year in high spirits. And with real earnings likely to rise this year for the first time since 2007, there is scope for... 31st January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Market turmoil highlights region’s differences The fallout from the turbulence in EM financial markets has split Emerging Europe into two groups. One group contains Turkey, Russia and Hungary, whose currencies have been among the hardest hit in... 31st January 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response GDP (Q4 1st Estimate) When we take into account the near three-week Federal government shutdown at the start of the quarter, the 3.2% annualised gain in fourth-quarter GDP growth is pretty impressive, particularly since it... 30th January 2014 · 1 min read
ECB Watch ECB needs to follow words with action With the strong euro maintaining the risk of deflation in the euro-zone and inter-bank interest rates edging higher, the ECB’s Governing Council will need to follow up President Mario Draghi’s dovish... 30th January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Will Russia become the next EM to come under fire? The sharp sell-off in the ruble over the past week has led some to question whether Russia could be the next EM in line to hike interest rates. For now, we suspect that the Central Bank will stick to... 30th January 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update IMF deals and Gulf aid spare MENA’s non-oil producers In spite of their large current account deficits, the MENA region’s non-oil economies have stayed out of the spotlight during the recent turmoil in EM financial markets thanks, it seems, to IMF... 30th January 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Dire household finances pose two risks for Greece Although the risk of a “Grexit” has diminished substantially, we think that the dire financial position of Greek households has the potential to trigger a renewed intensification of the country’s... 30th January 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update How good is the outlook for Copenhagen property? Evidence of a budding economic recovery and a comparatively high level of property yields have boosted investor interest in Copenhagen. There are reasons not to get carried away. But the upside risks... 30th January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Economic fallout from market turmoil should be contained It’s too early to say with any certainty what impact the current turmoil in financial markets will have on EM growth. But while we expect the countries that have been hit hardest in recent weeks –... 30th January 2014 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor GDP data still overestimating China’s growth The Capital Economics China Activity Proxy (CAP) remains at odds with the official GDP figures, suggesting that the economy slowed by more and was growing at a slower pace in Q4 than the official data... 30th January 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Taking stock of the SARB’s surprise The dust is still settling on the SARB’s unexpected decision to hike interest rates yesterday, with the rand strengthening slightly against the US$ so far today. Nevertheless, the currency is still... 30th January 2014 · 1 min read
