Japan Economics Update Could the market turmoil derail Japan's recovery? The last time that the consumption tax was hiked, in 1997, Japan was tipped into recession shortly afterwards by a regional financial crisis. History appears at risk of repeating itself. However, many... 4th February 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Deflation dangers are greater this time While a bout of deflation in the euro-zone back in 2009 proved to be short-lived and harmless, there are reasons why a new episode of falling prices would be longer-lasting and more damaging. 4th February 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update PMIs highlight Egypt’s fragile recovery Last month’s PMI suggests that political turmoil surrounding Egypt’s constitutional referendum disrupted economic activity. Meanwhile, growth in non-oil sectors in the Gulf appears to remain strong. 4th February 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Who is next in line to hike interest rates? Following the South African Reserve Bank’s decision to hike interest rates last week in response to the recent turmoil in EM financial markets, Ghana looks set to be the next country in the region to... 4th February 2014 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response CIPS/Markit Construction PMI (Jan 14.) The CIPS/Markit construction PMI suggests that, in January, commercial property developers expanded their workloads at the fastest pace in more than six years. Clearly, developers are confident about... 4th February 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australia holds rates and takes cuts off the agenda The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) held its cash rate at 2.5% today, as expected. Moreover, it strongly suggested that it is does not expect to change policy in the foreseeable future. For now... 4th February 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Mortgage demand plummets The Fed's latest Senior Loan Officer Survey indicates that the jump in borrowing costs last year is still undermining demand for residential mortgages. The more recent drop back in mortgage rates... 3rd February 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global manufacturing expansion continued in January Despite the slowdown in China and the instability in some other emerging markets, the latest business surveys suggest that global manufacturing output grew at a steady pace in January. 3rd February 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jan.) The unexpected plunge in the ISM manufacturing index to an eight-month low of 51.3 in January, from 56.5, appears to have more to do with the unseasonably severe winter weather, than a major slowdown... 3rd February 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Third bail-out will not solve all of Greece's problems The news that Germany is drawing up plans for another support package for Greece, suggests that policymakers are gradually resolving some of the problems surrounding Greece’s current bail-out deal... 3rd February 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is it right to blame Fed tapering for the EM sell-off? Many equity investors will be happy to see the back of January, but several lessons are worth underlining. In short, the gradual scaling back of the Fed’s asset purchases alone still seems unlikely to... 3rd February 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Outlook hazy, but growth still appears to be slowing The period around Chinese New Year is always a difficult time for anyone trying to make sense of what’s happening in China’s economy. It will be another couple of months before we get a clear view of... 3rd February 2014 · 1 min read
BoE Watch RIP forward guidance? With the unemployment rate likely to fall below 7% soon, February’s MPC meeting will set the scene for the demise of forward guidance, at least in its current form. Comments by MPC members suggest... 3rd February 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CIPS/Markit Report on Manufacturing (Jan.) Although the CIPS/Markit manufacturing survey weakened further in January, it continues to suggest that the industrial sector is enjoying a robust recovery and making a punchy contribution to overall... 3rd February 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African manufacturers still struggling South Africa’s latest manufacturing PMI suggests that the sector has started 2014 on a subdued note. The continued depreciation of the rand should eventually provide a boost for local industry over... 3rd February 2014 · 1 min read
