Europe Data Response Belgian GDP (Q4) Today’s Q4 GDP figures indicate that the weak Belgian recovery is gradually taking hold, but we expect growth to remain unspectacular for a while yet. 29th January 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How do the US and UK labour markets compare? The recent sharp falls in the unemployment rate in the US and particularly the UK have raised expectations that their central banks may soon be forced to tighten monetary policy in order to head off a... 29th January 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How to interpret the Nikkei-yen correlation There have recently been few relationships which are more reliable than the tight correlation between the level of the Nikkei and the yen/dollar exchange rate. We are wary of simply extrapolating a... 29th January 2014 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Land Registry Repeat Sales Index (Dec.13) The Land Registry reported that house prices ended the year on a strong note, with December seeing the strongest month-on-month gain since July. Nearly all regions saw a rise in prices over 2013, but... 29th January 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Nuclear shutdown not the main reason for surging trade deficit The widening in Japan's trade deficit is often attributed to a surge in energy imports as a result of the nuclear shutdown. However, the jump in the energy import bill is mostly due to the impact of... 29th January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Turkey & India likely to be the exception rather than the rule The decisions by Turkey and India yesterday to raise interest rates have inevitably led to speculation that market turbulence will force policymakers in other parts of the emerging world to follow... 29th January 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian financial markets rally on hopes for political stability The Egyptian stock market has rallied in recent days amid growing optimism about the prospects for political stability. The recently approved constitution paves the way for elections to take place... 29th January 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Dec.13) Euro-zone bank lending remained very weak in December, suggesting that the banking sector is still a significant drag on the region’s recovery. 29th January 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia tightening cycle to start in first half of 2014 Malaysia’s central bank (BNM) unsurprisingly kept its policy rate unchanged at 3.0% at its meeting today. But with the economy gradually gaining traction, we think the next move in rates is likely to... 29th January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central Bank of Turkey edges back to orthodoxy The operation of Turkey’s interest rate corridor means that the true extent of monetary tightening announced at last night’s emergency MPC meeting is a little less than the aggressive hike in the... 29th January 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Surplus ambitions raise some problematic issues The main political parties have recently been fighting amongst themselves for the mantle of fiscal responsibility. But ambitions on both sides for a budget surplus exaggerate the influence politicians... 29th January 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Asia escaping the worst of recent EM turmoil Asia has escaped the worst of the latest sell-off in EM assets. What’s more, some of the economies that were hit hardest during the turmoil of last summer have proved more resilient this time around. 29th January 2014 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Jan.14) There is no sign that the recovery in the housing market is moderating, with prices rising by 0.7% in January according to the Nationwide. Prices have now risen for 12 consecutive months, a feat last... 29th January 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Jan.) The latest fiscal data suggest that, last year, the smaller peripheral economies made significantly better fiscal progress than Italy or Spain. 29th January 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Is low inflation back for good? This year looks set to be the first since 2004 that the average inflation rate is below the 2% target. And with output still below its potential, a strong recovery is unlikely to generate price... 29th January 2014 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Fed likely to continue with taper despite market volatility 29th January 2014 · 1 min read
