Global Economics Update EM sell-off to have little impact on global economy The recent volatility in emerging markets may have a negative impact on some developing countries, but it should not prevent a gradual acceleration of growth in advanced economies. 28th January 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB loan buying plan won't dampen deflation risks Hints from Mario Draghi that the European Central Bank (ECB) may consider purchasing bank loans do not reduce the growing risks of deflation in the euro-zone. 28th January 2014 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response RICS Commercial Property Market Survey (Q4 13) Today’s RICS survey showed that the occupier market recovery now encompasses all sectors and regions, pointing to healthy gains in rents this year. 28th January 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (Jan.) In spite of the unseasonably severe winter weather, the Conference Board measure of consumer confidence rose to 80.7 in January, from 77.5. This probably reflects the continued improvement in labour... 28th January 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Time to reassess the outlook for peripheral property yields? Strong investment market activity in the fourth quarter, particularly in Spain and other peripheral markets, suggests that our 2014 forecast for unchanged yields in most euro-zone property markets may... 28th January 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller House Prices (Nov. 13) Monthly house price inflation has been in the 0.7%-1.2% range since mid-2013, and November was no exception. But the number of locations in the Case-Shiller 20-City index which are seeing a moderation... 28th January 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Can EM equities shrug off rising Treasury yields? One reason for the current nervousness in emerging markets (EMs) is of course the Fed's decision to begin tapering its asset purchases. However, suggestions that EM equities will inevitably struggle... 28th January 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Venezuela is unlikely to follow Argentina’s lead The parallels between the current economic situations in Argentina and Venezuela only go so far. While both economies have been ravaged by rampant inflation in recent years and haven depleted their... 28th January 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Preliminary GDP (Q4) The preliminary estimate of Q4 GDP confirmed that the UK economy’s recovery is becoming increasingly entrenched. While risks remain, 2014 looks set for a further acceleration in growth. 28th January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey and Russia hit hard by the EM sell-off The Turkish lira has been the worst performing EM currency after the Argentine peso so far this year. This has forced the central bank to announce an emergency MPC meeting later today, at which it... 28th January 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Dual concerns over inflation and rupee behind India rate hike The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) surprised the market with a rate hike today, signalling its commitment to bringing down inflation, while perhaps also hoping to protect the rupee amid the ongoing... 28th January 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan emerges from doldrums, recovery to continue GDP data released today for the final quarter of 2013 show that Taiwan’s economy ended 2013 on a solid note. Growth is likely to increase gradually in y/y terms over the next couple of years, helped... 28th January 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Small Business Confidence (Jan.) Small business confidence climbed to yet another fresh high in January. Conditions seem to be more buoyant in the non-manufacturing sector than in manufacturing, but sentiment will likely deteriorate... 28th January 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Dec 13.) The 1.0% m/m decline in durable goods orders was mainly due to a drop back in the notoriously volatile commercial aircraft component. More generally, there is some evidence that the growth rate of... 28th January 2014 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Credit risks remain high Worries about the health of China’s financial sector have been eased by today’s news that a high-profile default has been avoided on a troubled RMB3bn trust product (“Credit Equals Gold No. 1”). In... 27th January 2014 · 1 min read
