Commodities Update Cold weather heats up the US natural gas market The extreme cold in the US this winter has caused a dramatic increase in the price of natural gas. This jump is likely to be short-lived but we expect a more sustained price rise from 2015. 27th January 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Is the unemployment rate an outlier? The fall in unemployment has not been out of line with the wider evidence on the labour market or the economy. But the uncertainty over the implications for inflation suggests that the Monetary Policy... 27th January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s economy still struggling at the end of 2013 The raft of Russian activity data for December suggests that GDP growth may have picked up a little to around 1.5% y/y in Q4, from 1.2% y/y in Q3. For the year as a whole, this would imply average... 27th January 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: assessing the impact of the mining sector strikes The latest outbreak of strikes has cast a spotlight back on the problems in South Africa’s mining sector. Although it is difficult to predict how events will pan out from here, the disruption of... 27th January 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Too soon to panic about zinc supply The scheduled closure of a number of the world’s largest zinc mines after a period of strong growth in consumption suggests that there could be upward pressure on zinc prices in 2014-15. This... 27th January 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Asia is struggling for momentum Emerging Asia is continuing to struggle. While rising demand from the developed world is helping some economies, most notably Korea, it looks like the region as a whole ended the year on a lacklustre... 27th January 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Dec.13) The large decline in new home sales in December was probably driven by last month’s unseasonably severe winter weather. Sales activity in January is likely to be weak for similar reasons. But we... 27th January 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Fall-out from emerging market instability should be short-lived Although some currencies have fallen sharply this month, it still does not seem right to talk about a new financial crisis sweeping across all emerging markets (EMs). What’s more, the economic... 27th January 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack MENA financial markets shrug off broader EM concerns The MENA region’s financial markets have come through the latest bout of turmoil in EM markets relatively unscathed. Most equity markets have dropped back, although their losses have been small when... 27th January 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Are we seeing a re-run of the summer sell-off? The sell-off in emerging market (EM) assets following the Fed’s decision to taper its asset purchases in December has prompted comparisons with last summer’s turmoil. But while the latest data from... 27th January 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Where next for the Argentine peso? The recent market turmoil increases the likelihood of another 50bp interest rate hike in Brazil, but policymakers elsewhere in the region are unlikely to tighten monetary policy unless the currency... 27th January 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Housing upturn not all good news for durables retailers The UK's image as a 'nation of homeowners' overlooks the fact that homeownership has dropped significantly in recent years. And, to the extent that soaring property prices push down owner occupation... 27th January 2014 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus Is the housing market in a new bubble? Viewed in isolation and given the wider economic recovery, it seems premature to label the housing market upturn as a bubble. Yet, the recovery has come from a point where prices already appeared too... 27th January 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Jan.) January’s Ifo survey supported the message from other recent evidence that the German economy has started the new year with a reasonable amount of momentum. 27th January 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Farewell forward guidance? The combination of November’s further sharp fall in unemployment and hints from the Governor of the Bank of England suggest that the Monetary Policy Committee’s policy of formal, state-contingent... 27th January 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External trade (Dec.) The seasonally-adjusted trade deficit narrowed in December, but the full-year deficit surged. The trade shortfall is likely to widen again in the near-term as domestic demand is brought forward ahead... 27th January 2014 · 1 min read
