US Fed Watch Fed to continue with QE taper Despite the modest 74,000 increase in payroll employment in December, we expect the Fed to stick to its existing plans and reduce the monthly asset purchases by a further $10bn, to $65bn, at the... 22nd January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish central bank shoots itself in the foot In spite of the recent sharp fall in the lira, high inflation and rising inflation expectations, the Turkish central bank (CBRT) caved in to pressure from the government and resisted hiking interest... 21st January 2014 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Recovery becomes more resilient Our estimate that GDP grew at a decent annualised rate of 3.5% in the fourth quarter even though activity was hit by the Federal government shutdown and the unusually bad weather suggests that the... 21st January 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: CBN governor fires warning shot over fiscal loosening The Central Bank of Nigeria kept interest rates on hold today but, significantly, Governor Lamido Sanusi struck a notably more hawkish tone than has previously been the case in the accompanying press... 21st January 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Nov.) The stronger than expected increase in manufacturing sales volumes in November was the third consecutive solid gain and hints that the improving outlook overseas may finally be filtering through to... 21st January 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Will falling commodity prices trigger deflation? We expect ample supply to result in large falls in global oil prices in the next few years. At the same time, the prices of other key commodities, including industrial metals and agriculturals, are... 21st January 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand’s political crisis: How will it play out? Thailand’s political tensions have ratcheted up a notch, with the government today declaring a state of emergency in Bangkok. In this Update, we consider several scenarios for how the political crisis... 21st January 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Industrial Trends Survey (Jan. & Q1) The CBI’s Industrial Trends Survey for January and the first quarter of 2014 provided grounds for optimism on the pace and balance of the economic recovery. 21st January 2014 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Are we heading for another mortgage credit boom? The growth in mortgage lending seen over the past year will continue into 2014, but we doubt it will develop into a credit boom. Not only are banks unlikely to return to the type of lending practices... 21st January 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Jan.) January’s ZEW survey confirmed that German investors have started the new year in a reasonably optimistic mood. 21st January 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Strong growth could help to keep inflation low A continuation of the UK’s recent combination of increasing growth and falling inflation would seem too good to be true. But several factors, including a return to health in the banking sector and the... 21st January 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Labour Market Monitor (Jan.13) While Wednesday’s labour market figures are likely to show that the unemployment rate fell again in November, a swift fall to the 7% threshold used for the MPC’s forward guidance is not assured. A... 20th January 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China to stop supporting cotton prices Changes to China’s farm subsidies, which would allow market forces to have more influence over domestic cotton and soybean prices, should also result in substantially lower state stockpiling. This... 20th January 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Outlook Risks (mostly) still on the downside Commodities will not of course underperform other assets for ever, especially with end-user demand supported by a strengthening global economy. In comparison, valuations in equity and bond markets are... 20th January 2014 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Survey may overstate the outlook for London office rents The tone of the latest CBI/PwC Financial Services survey was very positive and bodes well for the Central London office market in 2014. Although strong supply growth will tend to be a restraint on... 20th January 2014 · 1 min read
