Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM recovery remains slow going Six months ago there were hopeful signs that growth in the emerging world might finally be picking up. But our GDP tracker suggests the upturn in growth seen in mid-2013 may have faltered in the final... 17th January 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Should we worry about sinking freight costs? The latest slump in the Baltic Dry Index (a measure of sea freight costs) has prompted some concern over the strength of the global economic recovery. However, we would not place much faith in the BDI... 17th January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Assessing the threat from Turkish corporate FX debt The recent sharp fall in the lira doesn’t appear to have led to significant FX debt servicing problems for Turkish companies. But given the rapid expansion of corporate FX debt over the past decade... 17th January 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook A brighter outlook We expect global growth to pick up gradually during the coming two years as private sector spending accelerates and fiscal austerity eases. Among advanced economies, the US will lead the recovery... 17th January 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Dec.) With December’s hefty monthly growth in retail sales, the consumer recovery seems to be at full steam. That said, the official data is at odds with other evidence and suggests that the retail sector... 17th January 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: rate cuts to be less aggressive than the market expects Rising inflation and a large current account deficit suggest that Chilean interest rates will not be cut as aggressively as the market anticipates this year. We continue to expect 50bp of rate cuts to... 17th January 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence (Dec) The renewed fall in consumer confidence in December shows that households are less satisfied with Abenomics than after its start. 17th January 2014 · 1 min read
Capital Daily UK retailers likely to have had a poor Christmas on average 17th January 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Central Bank of Egypt holds fire, for now Despite the fall in inflation in December, the Central Bank of Egypt decided to keep interest rates on hold at its meeting today. We think it’s unlikely that today’s decision marks the end of the... 16th January 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What next for emerging market dollar-denominated bonds? Dollar-denominated emerging market (EM) government bonds fared badly in 2013. The JP Morgan EMBI+ returned around minus 8%, which was the second worst annual performance since 1998. While we do not... 16th January 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Dutch banks still a weight on the recovery Although financial conditions in the Netherlands are set to improve in 2014, the country’s banking system will weigh on the recovery for a while yet. 16th January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Market Consumer Snapshot (Q1 2014) EM consumer spending grew at its slowest pace since 2009 last year. However, the latest data suggest that spending has started to pick up in recent months and, while a significant upturn seems... 16th January 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Dec.) With core CPI inflation steady at 1.7%, as upward pressure from shelter inflation offset a fall in medical care inflation, December’s CPI data won’t prevent the Fed from further trimming its asset... 16th January 2014 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Too soon to drop the inflation target The two-day meeting of the Bank of Japan’s Policy Board, which concludes next Wednesday (22nd), is unlikely to result in any significant changes to the asset purchase programme. We continue to favour... 16th January 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update A look ahead to the South African elections The key political event in sub-Saharan Africa this year is the elections for the presidency and national assembly in South Africa. Although it seems likely that Jacob Zuma will be re-elected as... 16th January 2014 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Return of institutions to the investment market is a good sign Commercial property transactions activity was strong in 2013 but, rather than the headline deals total, we think that the return of UK-based institutions to the investment market was more noteworthy... 16th January 2014 · 1 min read
