China Data Response Lending, credit (Dec.) & FX reserves (Q4) December’s credit data are likely to set the tone for 2014: tighter monetary conditions are curbing credit growth. We expect this in turn to slow the growth of the economy. Meanwhile, the foreign... 15th January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Better governance needed for Turkish income “convergence” Improved governance appears to have been a key ingredient in Turkey’s economic success story over the past decade. But further reforms will be needed if Turkish incomes are to continue “converging”... 15th January 2014 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor Are euro-zone government bonds favourably valued? Government bond yields have continued to fall in much of the euro-zone in response to improving economic conditions. Spreads over German Bunds have fallen to multi-year lows in many nations. But... 14th January 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Indonesia's export ban offers temporary support to nickel prices On 12th January, a law banning ore exports from Indonesia came into effect. The impact will be greatest in the nickel market, where Indonesia has a dominant position as the second largest miner of... 14th January 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Fed tightening risks to grow over the medium term We continue to expect the Fed to taper its asset purchases only gradually and to keep US interest rates on hold near zero until mid-2015. Nonetheless, thereafter we expect the Fed to return rates to... 14th January 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook China to slow, but faster growth elsewhere Most of Emerging Asia should enjoy a steady recovery in 2014-15 on the back of loose monetary policy and an expected recovery in the developed world. China is the main exception. Recently announced... 14th January 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Warsaw office rental downturn ending, but recovery still some way off It now looks likely that Warsaw office rents fell by between 3% and 5% last year, in line with our forecasts. We think that office rents should now stabilise, as occupier demand turns increasingly... 14th January 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Dec.) The further uptick in house price inflation to a 16-month high of 3.8% in December, from 3.4%, is consistent with the earlier pick-up in existing home sales seen over the summer. If the recent descent... 14th January 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Dec.) Although the modest 0.2% m/m gain in December's retail sales suggests that retailers had a disappointing holiday season, the truth is that underlying spending was strong. Indeed, over the fourth... 14th January 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenyan rate hikes possible later this year The Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) kept interest rates on hold today and, with inflation likely to ease over the coming months, there is no immediate pressure to tighten policy. But a large current... 14th January 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update World economy still has plenty of spare capacity Some commentators have suggested that the global business cycle is now quite advanced and that markets should expect much tighter monetary policy as soon as 2015. We disagree. 14th January 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update America will further reduce its reliance on oil imports America will import fewer barrels of oil both this year and next but, while this will narrow the trade deficit a bit, it won’t provide a major boost to the economy. 14th January 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Nov.) While November’s euro-zone industrial production figures provided hope that the economy regained a bit of momentum towards the end of last year, they don’t negate the need for more policy action from... 14th January 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Dec.) The fall in CPI inflation in December to the 2% target for the first time in four years shows that the economic recovery is not prompting price pressures to build. Indeed, CPI inflation looks likely... 14th January 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey (Dec) & Current Account (Nov) The renewed rise in the current activity component of the Economy Watchers Survey shows that conditions remain strong for now. But the prospect of a slump in demand after the upcoming consumption tax... 14th January 2014 · 1 min read
