UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Dec.) December’s BRC sales figures supported anecdotal evidence that retailers had a somewhat mixed Christmas period and added to evidence that sales growth slowed in Q4. But 2014 looks set to present a... 10th January 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update First appearances deceptive At first sight, today’s trade data from China imply that export demand has weakened while domestic demand has picked up speed. But once we take into account previous distortions in the export data... 10th January 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Why Iran talks have not (yet) led to much lower oil prices The progress being made in defusing tensions over Iran’s nuclear programme has failed to have a marked impact on global oil prices. In part this is because of renewed disruption elsewhere in the... 9th January 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico revving up to overtake Brazil The contrasting performances of the automotive sectors in Brazil and Mexico last year give an indication of the outlook for the region’s two largest economies. Booming vehicle sales in Mexico suggest... 9th January 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Draghi prepares the ground for more action President Draghi’s repeated assertions at today’s press conference that the ECB stands ready to use all instruments allowed by its Treaty suggested that more policy action is on the way. While another... 9th January 2014 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack House prices end 2013 on a strong note There are now signs that the housing market recovery is broadening out to the rest of the country, leading to increased fears that a new house price boom is on the way. That is certainly a risk, but... 9th January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Does rising confidence in Hungary herald stronger growth? Last month’s EC Economic Sentiment Indicator for Hungary rose to its highest level for over a decade and, on past form, this is consistent with GDP growth of 5% y/y or so. However, it’s worth noting... 9th January 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update The global implications of further monetary easing in Japan An extended period of ultra-loose monetary policy and additional asset purchases by the Bank of Japan should have some (mostly) positive spill-over effects into world markets this year and next... 9th January 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Low inflation may soon prompt easing bias Inflation has remained at the bottom of the Bank of Canada's 1% to 3% target range for over a year now, highlighting why the Governor is in no hurry to raise interest rates anytime soon. (See Chart.)... 9th January 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Inflation unlikely to be a major threat in 2014 Inflation across sub-Saharan Africa is likely to remain broadly stable in 2014. Admittedly, the region is more susceptible than other EM regions to food price shocks related to drought. But in the... 9th January 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Subdued sentiment to hold back European property values The surge in UK economic sentiment appears to be breathing new life into occupier markets outside London and is a key reason why we expect commercial property values in the UK as a whole to do well in... 9th January 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC likely to adapt forward guidance soon While today’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting passed without event, the Committee may soon adjust its forward guidance. Since there are no signs that falling unemployment is stoking inflation... 9th January 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Dec.) & German IP (Nov.) December's European Commission (EC) monthly business and consumer survey suggested that the euro-zone economy may have gained a bit more momentum towards the end of last year. But the outlook is still... 9th January 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Trade (Nov.) The trade figures have continued to pour cold water on hopes of an export-led recovery. And with little sign that a noteworthy recovery is emerging in the euro-zone, exports look set to remain subdued... 9th January 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia on hold, no hikes on the horizon Bank Indonesia (BI) today left interest rates on hold for the second consecutive month, suggesting it has become less concerned by the weakness of the currency. Looking ahead, with inflation set to... 9th January 2014 · 1 min read
