US Economics Focus Fed will eventually have to hike rates more rapidly The markets are happy to take the Fed at its word that it won't begin to raise rates until mid-2015 and will tighten only gradually after that, but we fear that rising wage and price inflation will... 13th January 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Businesses still remain in cautious mood The Bank of Canada's latest business outlook survey shows some welcome improvement in investment and hiring intentions but, despite the Canadian dollar's recent decline and stronger sales expectations... 13th January 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Higher output implies another weak year for grain prices Further increases in the production of grains and soybeans this year should put further downward pressure on prices. However, there is still plenty of time for adverse weather to shock the market. 13th January 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Would structural reform reinvigorate EM stock markets? One explanation for the relatively poor performance of emerging market (EM) equities has been the economic slowdown in many countries. But while supply-side structural reforms are needed to... 13th January 2014 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Outlook House prices set for further gains in 2014 The housing market finished 2013 strongly with prices and transactions both on upward trends. That momentum will continue into this year and, helped by an improving labour market, our central forecast... 13th January 2014 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Are our above-consensus rental forecasts too downbeat? Our expectations for GDP growth this year have been revised up and are well above consensus. However, our expectations for commercial property rental growth over 2014-15 (an average of more than 2.5%y... 13th January 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Iran deal underlines downside risks for global oil prices Confirmation that the interim nuclear deal between the major Western powers and Iran will come into force on 20th January is not in itself a game-changer for oil markets. Indeed, in the near-term... 13th January 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy appears to have had a weaker Q4 The latest Saudi activity data add to the evidence that, having rebounded over most of 2013, the economy ended last year on a slightly weaker note. Looking ahead, faster growth in the oil sector means... 13th January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What does 2014 hold in store for Emerging Europe? After a torrid run over the past five years, things are looking on the up for Emerging Europe. Of course, the region will remain vulnerable to events in the euro-zone. However, so long as the single... 13th January 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Norway set for several years of below-trend growth The Norwegian economy will slow more than the consensus expects over the coming years as its two major tailwinds in recent years – booms in the housing and energy sectors – fade out. 13th January 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Will car sales shift the recovery up a gear? With employment, real incomes and consumer confidence all likely to rise this year, the economic environment appears to be conducive to further growth in car sales in 2014. That said, some of the... 13th January 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Weak consumer spending weighing on Indian industry Industrial production data published on Friday showed output contracting for the second straight month in November. Going forward, the pressures exerted by elevated inflation and high interest rates... 13th January 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Japan’s tourism resurgence won’t do much for economy Tourist arrivals to Japan have surged over the past year. While this is good news for businesses that cater to visitors, the broader macroeconomic implication are minor. Tourism-related spending... 13th January 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Economy will avoid a deep freeze The unusually cold winter weather may take some of the heat out of the economic recovery, but the adverse impact will be small for two reasons. First, the hit to activity will be cushioned by... 13th January 2014 · 1 min read
