China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Dec.) Consumer price inflation fell further in December on the back of a sharp drop in food inflation. It may rebound this month due to the usual price volatility around Chinese New Year but is likely to... 9th January 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea to keep rates on hold until 2015 The Bank of Korea (BoK) kept its policy rate on hold today for the eighth consecutive month. With the economy set to stage a gradual recovery over the next year and inflationary pressures likely to... 9th January 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Undervaluation unlikely to prevent further yen weakness The yen is now “undervalued” on most measures. However, deviations from fundamental value can, of course, persist for a very long time and should not prove an obstacle to fresh declines. We continue... 9th January 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook The leader of the pack? The UK economy has leapt towards the top of the international growth table and there are good reasons to think it can stay there. We now expect the economy to grow by 3% this year and next. 8th January 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Unresolved tension in policy clouds outlook for 2014 The ongoing slowdown in China's economy is bringing into focus a tension in the government's objectives that is likely to be a key source of uncertainty in the months ahead. With the GDP growth target... 8th January 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Our key market calls for 2014 As the Fed gradually begins to scale back its monetary stimulus this year, we expect the dollar to rise and government bond yields to continue to drift higher. We also think investors’ appetite for... 8th January 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Brighter outlook for 2014? The world economy ended last year on a strong note, led by an upturn in manufacturing output in advanced economies. The pick-up in activity is feeding through to labour markets in many countries... 8th January 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Deflationary pressures still building Recent euro-zone inflation data have provided firmer signs that CPI inflation will remain well below the ECB’s 2% stability ceiling for longer than the Bank itself expects. Admittedly, headline CPI... 8th January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania likely to cut rates further Following today's decision to lower interest rates, the Romanian central bank hinted that further policy easing could be on the cards. The country's large external financing needs limit the scope for... 8th January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Four wildcards for 2014 Our central forecast is for another year of lacklustre growth in the emerging world in 2014. But, as always, there are risks to our forecast - both on the upside and downside. Most attention has... 8th January 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Dec.13) The drop in mortgage applications in December reflects the increase in mortgage interest rates over the past two months. But if the wider economy continues to pick up speed during 2014 as we expect... 8th January 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: another tough year ahead The South African economy grew at its second-slowest pace in 15 years in 2013. Growth should accelerate this year but, by the same token, a significant turnaround in performance seems unlikely. We are... 8th January 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (Nov.) & Retail Sales (Nov.) November’s euro-zone unemployment and retail sales data provided fresh evidence that the outlook for consumers is improving, but only slowly. 8th January 2014 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey (Q4 13) The tone of the latest Credit Conditions survey was positive, with the supply of and demand for credit rising in both the residential and commercial property sectors in Q4 last year. But lenders seem... 8th January 2014 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey (Q4 13) The tone of the latest Credit Conditions survey was positive, with the supply of and demand for credit rising in both the residential and commercial property sectors in Q4 last year. But lenders seem... 8th January 2014 · 1 min read
