Emerging Europe Economics Update Fall in the lira may trigger Turkish rate hike The Turkish central bank has been extremely reluctant to raise official interest rates over the past year or so. However, the recent fall in the lira may now force its hand. On balance, we think it is... 7th January 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Public spending set to provide less support to Saudi economy This year’s Saudi government budget envisages the slowest rise in public spending in over a decade. This is welcome from the viewpoint of longer-term fiscal sustainability, but it does mean that... 7th January 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Spanish prospects are improving, but only gradually December’s drop in Spanish unemployment will bolster hopes that the labour market has reached a turning point and the economic recovery may spread to the household sector. But while we have revised up... 6th January 2014 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Labour market conditions still improving gradually Our econometric model points to a healthy 200,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in December, although we suspect that the unemployment rate was probably unchanged at 7.0%. 6th January 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update World economy enters 2014 with fairly strong momentum Business surveys for December suggest that the world economy continued to grow at a solid pace at the end of 2013. We expect this to be sustained throughout most of this year. However, as there is... 6th January 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is the CAPE signalling a bubble in US equities? The fact that the valuation of the US stock market is already high compared to its long-run averages on the cyclically-adjusted price/earnings (CAPE) measure is a good reason to be wary of forecasting... 6th January 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update A closer look at Brazil’s worsening fiscal position There are two aspects of the recent deterioration in Brazil's fiscal position that are especially worrying. First, it has occurred despite the fact that the economy is operating at full employment... 6th January 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update PMIs suggest region ended 2013 on a strong note December's 'whole economy' PMIs for the Middle East and North Africa point towards faster growth in Q4 of last year than in Q3. Encouragingly, Egypt's PMI suggests that the economy is continuing to... 6th January 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CIPS/Markit Report on Services (Dec.) Although the CIPS services survey softened again in December, it still suggests that the recovery was strong at the end of 2013. And with the survey showing confidence rising and new business growing... 6th January 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly New Year optimism is justified this time 2014 could be the year that the economic recovery finally kicks into a higher gear. The big difference is that the headwinds that have hampered growth in recent years are fading, while the tailwinds... 6th January 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Consensus overly optimistic on 2014 growth prospects The consensus view that economic growth will accelerate this year is misplaced. While exports and business investment should improve modestly, we anticipate this will be more than offset by weaker... 6th January 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Is the monetary arrow of Abenomics misdirected? The return of inflation prompted by the Bank of Japan's bold monetary easing may not be unambiguously positive for all sectors of the economy. Consumer spending will be weaker than otherwise and any... 6th January 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Large-scale currency intervention set to continue Pledges by the People's Bank to end currency intervention are likely to crumble in the face of sustained pressure on the renminbi to appreciate. We think that China's central bank could accumulate... 6th January 2014 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Forward guidance set to evolve With the unemployment rate falling rapidly, the MPC has continued to stress that the reaching of the 7% threshold will not automatically trigger a rise in interest rates. Indeed, there have been hints... 6th January 2014 · 1 min read
