US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Nov.) The further decline in existing home sales to 4.90 million annualised in November, from 5.12 million the month before, reflects the continuing impact of the marked rise in mortgage rates earlier this... 19th December 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Policy flexibility limits downside economic risks We anticipate only a modest pick-up in the growth rates of exports and business investment, which will be more than offset by the impact of an outright decline in residential investment and slower... 19th December 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Ireland GDP (Q3) Ireland’s Q3 GDP figures provided further hope that, having exited its bail-out programme, the economy is robust enough to stand on its own two feet. 19th December 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Fed decision no turning point for markets Although the timing of the Fed’s decision to taper its asset purchases came as surprise to the majority (although not to us), the announcement has not proved so far to be the turning point for markets... 19th December 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Fed tapering shouldn't be a big deal for commodities The stance of US monetary policy is well down the list of key drivers for the prices of most commodities. The prospect of an extended period of ultra-low interest rates and the backdrop of stronger US... 19th December 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Consumers continue to spend cautiously Data for the early part of December suggest that consumers are in a reasonably positive mood in the run-up to Christmas. And there is still the potential for retailers to enjoy a further pick-up in... 19th December 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack African markets shrug off Fed tapering Financial markets in Africa appear to have taken yesterday's decision by the US Fed to taper its monthly asset purchases under QE3 in their stride. Of the region's major economies, Kenyan and Nigerian... 19th December 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update The view from the ground – Q4 2013 Business sentiment about China’s broad economic outlook recovered this quarter but most firms remain downbeat about their own prospects. Bankers are relaxed about the current state of monetary policy... 19th December 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus What to expect from emerging markets in 2014 For all the recent talk of a “Great Deceleration”, we think that the bulk of the slowdown in EM growth has already happened. Growth in aggregate next year looks set to be broadly unchanged from 2013... 19th December 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Nov.) While retail sales volumes rose in November, this made up only part of the previous month’s drop. So it is touch-and-go as to whether Q4 will see an expansion in sales volumes. But 2014 should see the... 19th December 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update New Zealand's outlook looks upbeat New Zealand’s economy staged a strong rebound in Q3, after drought hit agricultural and manufacturing production in the first half of the year. We expect solid growth next year, underpinned by strong... 19th December 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed begins gradual QE taper Our non-consensus view that the Fed would begin to wind down its monthly asset purchases without further delay in December was proved correct. As we suggested, at the conclusion of the two-day FOMC... 18th December 2013 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus Will Mark Carney need to rein in the housing market? The recovery in house prices has been accompanied by concerns that an unsustainable bubble is developing. At the moment, the indicators on housing market activity favoured by the Bank of England are... 18th December 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Markets to come under renewed pressure in 2014 Latin America's financial markets have stabilised during the past month, but are likely to come under pressure again in 2014 as global monetary conditions tighten and commodity prices fall. We expect... 18th December 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Ukraine steps back from the brink, but problems unresolved The outbreak of protests in Ukraine has dominated the headlines over the past month. With FX reserves already at perilously low levels, it had looked like the country could be tipped into a full-blown... 18th December 2013 · 1 min read
