Global Economics Update Fiscal austerity to continue but will be less severe next year Austerity will be a drag on growth in advanced economies next year, but the squeeze should be smaller than this year. Moreover, the risks of further fiscal tightening have fallen since US politicians... 18th December 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Sep., Oct. & Nov. 13) The strong rise in housing starts in November is an encouraging sign that homebuilders have not been overly spooked by higher mortgage interest rates. And with starts still below the level needed... 18th December 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Focus Half a dozen key calls for European commercial property in 2014 As 2013 draws to a close, in this Focus we take the opportunity to outline a selection of our key calls for European commercial property markets in 2014, and the thinking that underpins them. 18th December 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt outlook may be brightening following a difficult 2013 The Egyptian economy appears to have suffered a tumultuous second half of the year. On a positive note, the latest data provide signs that the economy may finally be finding its feet. And a recovery... 18th December 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor EMs to enter tapering on a sound footing Fed tapering may trigger more turbulence in Emerging Market (EM) asset prices over the coming days and months, but the latest Capital Economics Risks Indicator (CERI) suggests that tighter global... 18th December 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will France fall into a triple-dip recession? Recent economic data may overstate the threat that the French economy will enter a triple-dip recession in Q4. But they do underline that the country’s recovery in 2014 will be very weak. 18th December 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Dec.) Following a subdued few months, December’s CBI Distributive Trades Survey suggests that retailers are enjoying a decent run-up to the Christmas period. And sales growth may pick up further before the... 18th December 2013 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Financial and business services sector jobs (Q3 13) Jobs growth in the financial & business services (FBS) sector was strong again in the third quarter. In fact, on past form, the data suggest that our forecast for City and West End office rents to... 18th December 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Data (Oct./Nov.) & MPC Minutes (Dec.) While the latest labour market figures have raised the chances that the jobless rate falls below the MPC’s 7% threshold in 2014, December’s minutes suggested that the benign inflation outlook will... 18th December 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth levels out at start of Q4 Our GDP Tracker suggests that having accelerated in Q3, EM growth levelled out at the start of Q4. Although we wouldn’t read too much into one month’s data, this is likely to set the scene for 2014... 18th December 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Dec.) December’s Ifo survey was consistent with other evidence pointing to steady but unspectacular growth in the German economy. 18th December 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India’s hiking cycle looks to be over The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept policy rates on hold at its meeting today. Given that the economic recovery is still very fragile, the central bank is likely to remain patient with inflation... 18th December 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External trade (Nov.) The weak yen is largely to blame for the recent widening of the trade deficit. As domestic demand accelerates ahead of the consumption tax hike, the deficit may well widen further in the near-term... 18th December 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Prospect of Fed tapering prompts some capital flight Investors in emerging market assets clearly remain concerned about the consequences of a tapering of the Fed’s asset purchases. EPFR Global data reveal that there were net ETF and mutual fund... 17th December 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Remittance inflows could take the edge off current account concerns Concerns have been raised about the impact of less accommodative global monetary policy on capital flows to sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), but one factor that often gets overlooked is that of overseas... 17th December 2013 · 1 min read
