US Chart Pack Retail sales growth accelerating The recent pick-up in the growth rate of underlying retail sales suggests that we are finally seeing a strengthening in domestic demand. It may well be sustained too. Coming out of the recession, the... 17th December 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Agricultural reform in China could reduce global prices Potential changes to China’s farm subsidies, which would allow market forces to have more influence over domestic crop prices, could result in substantially lower state stockpiling of many... 17th December 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Iceland's debt write-down plan will support the recovery Iceland’s controversial plan for more debt relief for indebted households is, despite some risks, a positive for the economy. But the scope for similar measures in the euro-zone’s periphery is limited... 17th December 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) & Current Account (Q3) We’re not convinced that the low rate of inflation in November will prevent the Fed from announcing tomorrow that it will begin to taper its asset purchases, although the decision remains finely... 17th December 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Oct.) October's surprisingly strong gain in manufacturing sales volumes was largely due to the strength of the rebound in food sales. The weakness of sales in most other categories and the downward trend in... 17th December 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Could Hungary's investment market be on the cusp of recovery? There are plenty of reasons to be optimistic about the outlook for the Hungarian commercial property investment market. This afternoon’s further cut in interest rates, to a fresh record low of 3%... 17th December 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central Europe to keep rates low, Turkey set to tighten The Turkish central bank took small steps to tighten monetary conditions today but, given the country's vulnerability to Fed tapering, more aggressive measures could be needed next year. In contrast... 17th December 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How strong can the euro-zone recovery get? Although the euro-zone has tentatively emerged from its long and damaging recession, we remain sceptical that it will expand at a fast enough pace to reduce unemployment significantly, lower the... 17th December 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Dec.) December’s German ZEW survey suggested that financial market participants have ended the year in a reasonably upbeat mood towards the economic outlook. 17th December 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Nov.) The fall in CPI inflation to a four year low in November confirms that the economy is enjoying a favourable mix of strong growth and low inflation. And with inflation on track to dip below 2% in 2014... 17th December 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Swedish Riksbank likely to soften its stance further The Swedish Riksbank's decision to reduce interest rates is unlikely to have a major positive impact on the economy. We expect GDP to continue to grow at a lacklustre pace, suggesting that the... 17th December 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabian economy ending the year on a weaker note Having rebounded over the past couple of quarters, the Saudi Arabian economy appears to be ending the year on a slightly weaker note. Oil production has fallen back from the highs it reached in the... 17th December 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update EM inflation to stay low in 2014 Emerging market (EM) inflation remained low by historic standards in November. Recent declines in global commodity prices should dampen inflation over the coming months, while we see little sign of... 17th December 2013 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor GDP growth slowing in Q4 The Capital Economics China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that GDP growth has slowed to around 7.5% y/y in the final quarter of the year. 17th December 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Swedish Riksbank likely to soften its stance further The Swedish Riksbank’s decision to reduce interest rates is unlikely to have a major positive impact on the economy. We expect GDP to continue to grow at a lacklustre pace, suggesting that the... 17th December 2013 · 1 min read
