Global Markets Update New forecasts for emerging market bonds and equities We have revised some of our key forecasts for emerging market (EM) bonds and equities. On average, we now expect larger increases in credit spreads and smaller gains in stock prices than before. Our... 11th December 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Sluggish growth in 2014-15 After a golden decade during which annual GDP expanded by an average of more than 4%, Latin America is now entering a new era of weaker growth. We expect GDP growth to average 2.5-3.0% during 2014-15... 11th December 2013 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Will market conditions loosen in the spring? Current concerns about the pace of house price gains could prove short-lived if a sharp rise in sales instructions helps to rebalance the market in the spring. But with rising house price expectations... 11th December 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Outlook 2014 will see a slowdown in the housing recovery The housing market recovery is entering a new phase. The rapid bounce in house prices, which was driven by strong investment buying and tight supply conditions, will soon start to moderate. The... 11th December 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Attention turns to demand & South American harvests In spite of the increase in demand for animal feed projected in the latest WASDE, we expect the global supply of the major grains and soybeans to be ample at current or even lower prices. 11th December 2013 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack UK markets struggling to hear MPC's dovish message UK markets continue to think that official interest rates will rise in mid-2015 despite some dovish signals from the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) over the last month. In particular, MPC members... 11th December 2013 · 1 min read
China Data Response Lending & Outstanding Credit (Nov.) While bank lending was stronger than anticipated last month, overall credit growth continued to slow. The relative strength of loan demand may reflect the fact that rising market interest rates have... 11th December 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Focus African consumer boom has much further to run Sub-Saharan Africa's (SSA's) consumer market has quadrupled in size since 2000, and is now worth over US$650bn. While some of the tailwinds that have supported consumption over the past decade are... 11th December 2013 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update What might the FLS changes mean for commercial property? The re-focussing of the Funding for Lending Scheme (FLS) away from mortgage lending and onto businesses, and in particular small to medium-sized enterprises, can only be a positive change for the... 11th December 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Nov.) Despite a sharp fall in the money multiplier, the growth rates of bank lending and broad money reached fresh highs in November. 11th December 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Machinery Orders (Oct.) The rise in machinery orders in October leaves the uptrend intact and should ease concerns that the fledgling recovery in business investment has already come to an end. 11th December 2013 · 1 min read
Capital Daily US Treasury yields unlikely to surge when the Fed tapers 11th December 2013 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack Is Fed tapering now priced in? Emerging market assets have suffered since mid-October from renewed speculation that the US Fed will taper its asset purchases sooner rather than later. Both equities and bonds have sold off over the... 10th December 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Rising wealth will boost consumption growth The recent surge in equity prices and rapid rebound in house prices are boosting household wealth and will contribute to an acceleration in consumption growth over the next two years. 10th December 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB can’t count on Fed tapering to weaken the euro The ECB cannot rely on the commencement of asset purchase tapering by the US Federal Reserve to bring the euro down from its potentially damaging levels. 10th December 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: a decent Q3, but risks growing Turkish GDP growth held up relatively well in Q3 in spite of the turmoil in the financial markets and a substantial tightening of monetary policy. However, this was made possible by a rapid expansion... 10th December 2013 · 1 min read
