Global Economics Chart Pack Economic activity picks up further Judging by the latest business surveys, activity in advanced economies has strengthened further. The global manufacturing PMI is now consistent on past form with world GDP growth of as much as 4%... 6th December 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Uni. of Mich. Consumer Confidence (Dec.) The sharp rise in the University of Michigan's measure of consumer confidence to a five-month high of 82.5 in December, from 75.1, presumably reflects the strength of the labour market and the upward... 6th December 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Nov.) November's stronger than expected 21,600 gain in employment was overshadowed by the decline in hours worked. Accordingly, the incoming data still points to slower fourth-quarter GDP growth, which we... 6th December 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Do consumers get the MPC's 'mood music'? Recent rises in inflation and interest rate expectations might contradict claims by Mark Carney that households understand the MPC’s forward guidance. But we are not too concerned about the former at... 6th December 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Muted response to US data suggests "Fed taper" priced in The limited reaction in commodity markets to the stronger-than-expected US employment report supports our view that Fed tapering may not be the watershed that many still expect. In particular, the... 6th December 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What do China’s reforms mean for other EMs? The shift in China's growth model that has been signalled by its leadership would benefit many economies elsewhere in the emerging world while causing difficulties for others. Major commodity... 6th December 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment (Nov.) & Income/Spending (Oct.) The 203,000 increase in November's non-farm payrolls, along with the drop in the unemployment rate to a five-year low of 7.0%, gives the Fed all the evidence it needs to begin tapering its asset... 6th December 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Autumn Statement provides modest gain to consumers With sizeable improvements in the economic and fiscal forecasts, December’s Autumn Statement gave the Chancellor leeway to announce measures which will provide some modest support to consumers’... 6th December 2013 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Could capital gains tax changes help boost short-term housing supply? Yesterday’s announcement that foreign owners of property will be liable for CGT from April 2015 is unlikely to encourage those owners to sell up, as it will only apply to future gains. But the move to... 6th December 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Iceland GDP (Q3) Although Iceland’s GDP data is very volatile, Q3’s sharp economic expansion shows that the country is successfully rebuilding its economy. 6th December 2013 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Nov 13.) There is no sign that the housing market is losing momentum as the year draws to a close, with prices up a substantial 1.1% during November. That will add to the pressure on the Bank of England to do... 6th December 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nelson Mandela’s economic legacy Nelson Mandela’s role in the political development of South Africa is unquestionable, but significant economic progress was also made under his leadership. However, this is now in danger of being... 6th December 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Optimism likely to fade as tax hike looms Preliminary data show that the recovery slowed last quarter, but this follows unsustainably strong growth in the first half of the year, and is thus no cause for concern. Indeed, several business... 6th December 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia to raise rates sooner than expected In its latest move to rein in subsidy spending, the Malaysian government this week announced that it will hike electricity tariffs in 2014. Further subsidy cuts, particularly on the fuel front, are... 6th December 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Dec.) The acceleration in consumer price inflation that started in early summer looks near to an end. With policymakers focussing on reining in credit, and few signs of underlying price pressures, we expect... 6th December 2013 · 1 min read
Capital Daily US Employment Report could prompt Fed to taper later this month 6th December 2013 · 1 min read
