Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Oct.) The rise in wages in October largely reflects volatile overtime payments, while regular pay continues to fall. Looking ahead, there are a number of reasons to be sceptical about an acceleration in... 3rd December 2013 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Strong ISM manufacturing index gives Fed further food for thought 3rd December 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global manufacturing strengthened in November Business surveys published today suggest that the manufacturing recovery strengthened further in November, led by the US, UK and Japan. The euro-zone, however, is largely missing out, and there are... 2nd December 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Nov.) The unexpected increase in the ISM manufacturing index to a two-and-a-half year high of 57.3 in November, from 56.4, suggests that activity is receiving a boost from both stronger domestic and... 2nd December 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican industry moves further ahead of Brazil November’s PMI surveys add to the evidence that the outlook for Mexican manufacturing has improved markedly in recent months. By contrast, Brazilian manufacturing appears to be entering a prolonged... 2nd December 2013 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Bank of England starts to take away the punch bowl The Bank of England has started the slow process of withdrawing support to the mortgage market. In our view, the acceleration of the review into the introduction of an industry-wide leverage ratio is... 2nd December 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Political unrest could push Ukraine into an economic crisis The reaction in the Ukrainian financial markets to escalating political protests in Kiev has been smaller than might have been expected. There is a large amount of uncertainty about what will happen... 2nd December 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Focus What is the outlook for commercial property in Spain and Italy? The economic problems facing Italy mean that, in our view, it is too soon to call the floor for capital values in office and industrial markets. By contrast, we do expect the next big move in Spanish... 2nd December 2013 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Rates on hold for a long time yet With November’s Inflation Report indicating favourable prospects for growth and inflation, there is little reason for the MPC to change course on policy. And while unemployment may be falling more... 2nd December 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombian interest rates to stay on hold for most of 2014 Following the Colombian central bank’s decision to leave interest rates on hold on Friday, we think that the Colombian economy will have to deteriorate significantly to trigger additional rate cuts... 2nd December 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CIPS Report on Manufacturing (Nov.) November’s CIPS manufacturing survey signals that the sector’s revival is continuing to gather pace and so should help to ease concerns that the economic recovery is entirely dependent on an... 2nd December 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African PMI picks up but challenges still remain Following the sharp contraction in South African manufacturing in Q3, the latest PMI reading suggests that the sector may have staged a rebound so far in Q4. Nevertheless, a number of domestic... 2nd December 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update November’s PMIs suggest recovery is strengthening The latest PMIs for Emerging Europe show that the region's manufacturing sector strengthened further in November. The important exception is Russia, whose PMI fell back last month, adding to the... 2nd December 2013 · 1 min read
China Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Nov 13.) The latest PMI surveys beat expectations but they also hint that momentum in manufacturing has peaked. In particular, output is outpacing orders. Meanwhile, all of the recent gains have come from... 2nd December 2013 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Will US payrolls prompt the Fed to taper later this month? 2nd December 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update November PMIs point to mixed recovery The November PMIs for Emerging Asia were a mixed bag. Regional manufacturing remains on the road to recovery, but today’s readings are a reminder that it is unlikely to be robust or even. 2nd December 2013 · 1 min read
