Europe Chart Pack Weak growth & strong euro keep pressure on ECB Having slowed almost to a halt in Q3, early indications suggest that the euro-zone’s economic recovery is unlikely to have regained much momentum – if any – in the final quarter of the year. Meanwhile... 4th December 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Sep. 13 & Oct. 13) New home sales were still suffering the effects of the rise in mortgage interest rates in September, but fully made up for their earlier weakness in October. In other words, higher rates do not appear... 4th December 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Capital outflows from Nigeria could become a risk A sizeable current account surplus means that capital outflows from Nigeria are not a cause for concern at the moment. However, a sustained fall in oil prices, as well as the appointment of a more... 4th December 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Brent - WTI spread to narrow as both prices fall back The widening of the spreads between the prices of Brent and US benchmark crudes should reverse over the next year as new pipelines ease the logistical constraints that have contributed to the glut of... 4th December 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish interest rate hikes unlikely until 2015 Governor Belka reiterated his “forward guidance” at today’s post-MPC meeting press conference, pledging not to raise interest rates until the end of the first half of 2014 at the earliest. For our... 4th December 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Inflation easing despite stronger recovery CPI inflation fell sharply from 2.7% to 2.2% in October and it looks likely to fall below the 2% target soon. Past falls in global agricultural commodity prices suggest that food price inflation will... 4th December 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Oct.) October's decline in export volumes illustrates that any export-led recovery is still some way off. This supports our view that fourth-quarter GDP growth will slow to a very underwhelming 1.5%... 4th December 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Oct.) & ADP Payrolls (Nov.) The trade deficit narrowed to $40.6bn in October, from $43.0bn, but that decline only partly reversed the widening in September. Looking through the month-to-month volatility, the trade deficit... 4th December 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Rebound in oil sector supports Saudi Q3 GDP growth Saudi Arabian Q3 GDP data showed that growth picked up as a rebound in the oil sector more than offset a slowdown in the rest of the economy. Looking ahead, growth may accelerate over the coming... 4th December 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Nov 13.) The slight rise in mortgage applications for home purchase in November was not enough to undo earlier falls. But it was a step in the right direction and we expect mortgage activity to pick up... 4th December 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Elections in the "Fragile Five": threat or an opportunity? Each of the five countries that were the worst hit by the summer currency sell-off (the so-called “Fragile Five”) are due to hold important elections next year. In the short term, uncertainty ahead of... 4th December 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian economy may be finding its feet November's PMI data provide further evidence that the Egyptian economy may be finding its feet after a tumultuous summer. Meanwhile, the Saudi PMI pointed to a pick-up in growth in the non-oil sector... 4th December 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q3 13), Final PMIs (Nov.13) & Retail Sales (Oct.13) The breakdown of Q3 GDP and more timely news on retail sales and the final PMIs further underlined the weakness of the euro-zone’s recovery. 4th December 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Recovery in Q3 led by pick-up in export growth The breakdown of GDP data released this morning for several Central and South Eastern European economies confirmed that the moderate recovery in the third quarter was supported in large part by... 4th December 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CIPS/Markit Report on Services (Nov.13) While the CIPS services survey softened slightly in November, the strength of the manufacturing and construction surveys suggests that the economic recovery is maintaining its momentum. Quarterly GDP... 4th December 2013 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Are the prospects for distribution warehouses still positive? Recent yield shifts suggest that investors may have more confidence in the prospects for standard industrial rents than distribution warehouses. To us, the reverse is still more likely and... 4th December 2013 · 1 min read
