Asia Economics Update Indian growth bottoming out, bumpy recovery ahead Indian GDP growth appears to be bottoming out. Growth accelerated in the third quarter of 2013 from the more than four-year low of the previous quarter. Looking ahead, we believe that the economy's... 2nd December 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Capital Expenditure (Q3) The fall in capital expenditure last quarter dashed hopes that non-residential investment may be revised up in the second estimate of Q3 GDP. Corporate profitability weakened, especially in the... 2nd December 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Currency depreciation will prevent deflation The recent softening in underlying inflation, which has been partly driven by the widening output gap, has triggered speculation that Canada faces the risk of a deflation developing, particularly if... 2nd December 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Will the UK economy continue to outperform? One of the key questions faced by the Office for Budget Responsibility in producing its economic forecasts for this week’s Autumn Statement is whether the recent outperformance of the UK economy... 2nd December 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Rating changes don't confirm convergence Last week’s rating changes by S&P, which stripped the Netherlands of its triple A status and moved Spain from negative watch to stable, appeared to re-affirm the recent message from the economic data... 2nd December 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly How sustainable is the surge in consumption? Consumption has climbed to new highs as a share of demand in recent years, even though the share of income going to workers has fallen. While this can largely be explained by the effects of population... 2nd December 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Growth in Asia has picked up, but risks lie ahead GDP data for the third quarter showed a small improvement in regional growth, led by stronger export performance. Looking ahead, we expect the region to pick up pace gradually over the next couple of... 2nd December 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Cutting the IOER rate would be too risky Cutting the interest on excess reserves (IOER) rate may seem like a simple way for the Fed to signal its intent to leave short rates at near-zero for several more years, at the same time as it begins... 2nd December 2013 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Will US payrolls prompt the Fed to taper later this month? 29th November 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP (Q3 2013) Although the pick-up in third-quarter GDP growth is encouraging, it partly reflects the rebound from flooding in Alberta and the construction strike in Quebec. Unfortunately, the details show a... 29th November 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Nov.) The latest broad money supply figures support signs that the economic recovery has remained strong in the fourth quarter. Meanwhile, bank lending has begun to show some tentative signs of improvement... 29th November 2013 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Oct.13) The Bank of England reported that mortgage approvals for house purchase continued to grow in October, although at a slower pace than in the recent past. Rigorous affordability tests appear to be... 29th November 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Oct.) Talk of a recovery fuelled by lending growth continues to be overdone. Accordingly, while the willingness of the Bank of England to curb lending may hold back any strong revival in credit, this need... 29th November 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s credit binge will have painful consequences Credit in Brazil has expanded to such an extent over the past decade that it now poses a serious risk to financial stability. The tightening of monetary policy over the past six months should help to... 29th November 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Nov.) & Unemployment (Oct.) The latest news on euro-zone inflation and unemployment will do little to relieve the pressure on the ECB to take more action to support the fragile economic recovery and head off a potentially... 29th November 2013 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Oct.13) Net commercial property lending was negative again in October but, to us, the end of the deleveraging process now seems to be coming into sight. 29th November 2013 · 1 min read
