Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish recovery supported by turnaround in domestic demand The detailed breakdown of third quarter Polish GDP data showed that, while net trade remained the main driver of growth, domestic demand has finally come out of its year-long slump. 29th November 2013 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Nov. 13) There is no sign that the gains to house prices are losing any momentum, with a rise of 0.6% in November according to the Nationwide. But we still doubt this will develop into a widespread house price... 29th November 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Swedish & Danish GDP (Q3) Sweden’s much weaker than anticipated rise in GDP in Q3 increases the pressure on the Riksbank to soften its monetary policy stance. 29th November 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Nov.) November’s fall in consumer confidence suggests that households are still not feeling the full benefit of the economic recovery. Nonetheless, some solid props to consumer spending are on the horizon. 29th November 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Prices, Unemployment, Industrial Production (Oct.), Manufacturing PMI (Nov.) Despite a slower-than-expected rise in industrial production in October, the outlook for the sector remains buoyant. Meanwhile, there are signs that domestic inflationary pressure is picking up even... 29th November 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China’s equities rebound, bond yields surge China’s stock market rebounded strongly in the second half of November, as the comprehensive reform plan released following the Plenum seems to have eased fears of a sharp slowdown in the economy... 29th November 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish & Danish GDP (Q3 13) Sweden’s much weaker than anticipated rise in GDP in Q3 increases the pressure on the Riksbank to soften its monetary policy stance. 29th November 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Sugar prices still have further to fall Even though the global price of sugar has already slumped by around a third over the last three years, we think it has further to go. We expect the US benchmark sugar price to finish 2014 at 15 cents... 28th November 2013 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Is inflation targeting dead? Recent changes in the conduct of monetary policy have prompted some to argue that the era of inflation targeting is passing. Some central banks have put more emphasis on the labour market than was... 28th November 2013 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Time to talk about the euro? Last month's cut in interest rates has not lifted the pressure on the ECB to provide more support for the fragile economic recovery. Accordingly, President Draghi may make a more concerted effort to... 28th November 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Will bitcoin ever become mainstream? The surge in the value of bitcoin has encouraged speculation that it could become a credible alternative to fiat currencies and a serious financial asset in its own right, perhaps even supplanting... 28th November 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Central banks turn more hawkish Interest rates were kept on hold in South Africa, Nigeria, Kenya and Ghana this month, but the more interesting aspect of the announcements was the notably hawkish tone struck by policymakers. In... 28th November 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Bank of England takes action to cool housing market Alongside the release of its Financial Stability Report, the Bank of England has unveiled new measures to blunt the incentives for banks to make new mortgage loans. While these initiatives may do... 28th November 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update A second bail-out still looms for Portugal Portugal is unlikely to follow in Ireland’s footsteps and achieve a “clean exit” from its existing rescue package. We think that the most likely scenario is that Portugal seeks a second full-blown... 28th November 2013 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Stronger occupier markets to cushion blow of rising bond yields For European commercial property markets outside of the currency union, occupier conditions appear to be strengthening gradually, while investment markets have cooled. We expect these trends to... 28th November 2013 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Land Registry Repeat Sales Index (Oct 13.) The Land Registry posted a surpise fall in house prices during October of 0.2%, and revised down September’s gain. But overall the evidence is that house price rises are becoming more widespread... 28th November 2013 · 1 min read
