Asia Economics Update Australia’s economy is unlikely to rebalance seamlessly Australia’s economy slowed slightly in the third quarter. We expect growth to remain below trend over the next couple of years as the economy adjusts to cooling mining investment. 4th December 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India’s current account vulnerability falls, but risks remain Measures to curb demand for imported gold have contributed to a sharp narrowing of India’s current account deficit. This should make the rupee less vulnerable to shifts in global investor sentiment. 4th December 2013 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Sterling’s strength is unlikely to last Sterling has been the best performing major developed market currency over the past few months, appreciating to more than 1.64 dollars, compared to an exchange rate of 1.50 during the summer. The... 3rd December 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Aussie dollar likely to come under further pressure The Australian dollar was the second-worst performing of the G-10 currencies in November behind the Japanese yen, shedding nearly 4% of its value against the US dollar. We expect the Aussie to remain... 3rd December 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Monetary expansion continues Our measure of the aggregate monetary base in advanced economies has expanded rapidly during the past few months as both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan have pressed on with their asset... 3rd December 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Talk of imminent monetary easing seems premature We continue to expect the Bank of Japan to announce further substantial monetary stimulus eventually, but those now speculating that it might act within the next few months are likely to be... 3rd December 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Oct. 13) With the release of the CoreLogic house price index for October it’s clear that the pace of monthly house price gains has accelerated in recent months. But we continue to expect price gains to slow... 3rd December 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Supply and Fed fears dominate The prospects for supply have been the key driver of most commodity prices in the last few months. The main exception is precious metals, where sentiment has been undermined – perhaps excessively so –... 3rd December 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Old habits die hard in Brazil Brazilian GDP growth was weaker than expected in Q3, while the breakdown dashed hopes that the economy is rebalancing away from consumption and towards investment. With the economy reaching the limits... 3rd December 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa’s current account deficit balloons in Q3 South Africa’s current account deficit widened to its largest level since 2008 in Q3. What’s more, the shortfall continues to be funded in large part by short-term capital inflows. As such, the... 3rd December 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update BRIC manufacturing recovery lags behind Manufacturing in the emerging world remains on course for a fairly strong final quarter of the year. Our EM-wide manufacturing PMI, based on data produced by Markit, is consistent with industrial... 3rd December 2013 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Construction PMI (Nov.) and Mergers & Acquisitions (Q3 13) The latest construction PMI points to solid confidence in the outlook for occupier demand, supporting our view that 2014 will see a meaningful rental recovery. 3rd December 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update More 'creative destruction' is good news for productivity New data on UK business births and deaths show that both are on the rise. With productivity growth driven largely by the impact of firms entering and exiting industries, evidence of more ‘creative... 3rd December 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Nov.) November’s BRC retail sales figures brought more evidence of a slight slowdown in the recovery in consumer spending. But retail sales should grow at a faster pace soon as the drags on consumer... 3rd December 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australia’s central bank still likely to provide more support The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept its policy rate on hold at 2.5% today. However, we think further loosening will be needed next year to help the economy cope with the cooling mining boom. 3rd December 2013 · 1 min read
