UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lenders and Administrators Statistics (Q3 13) Six months after the launch of Help to Buy, detailed mortgage lending statistics show little evidence of a rise in the share of new mortgages being advanced on the basis of a 5% deposit. But there has... 10th December 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production & Trade (Oct.) October’s figures on industrial production and trade offered some good news for the Government’s oft-proclaimed ambition for an economy more biased towards manufacturing. But, on the external side... 10th December 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Copenhagen industrial market set to outperform The latest economic data from Denmark suggest that industrial occupier conditions in Copenhagen are on the mend. And with rental values more than 10% below a linear trend, and yields more than 10%... 10th December 2013 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (Nov. 13) While buyer interest continues to build, sellers are reluctant to return to the market. A growing disparity between the number of active buyers and sellers does not seem a healthy basis for the upturn... 10th December 2013 · 1 min read
China Data Response Industrial production, retail sales & investment (Nov.) Today's activity data releases provide further evidence that the momentum behind the summer rebound has peaked despite renewed strength in the state sector. A tighter policy stance is likely to cause... 10th December 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Business Outlook Survey (Q4) & Consumer Confidence (Nov) The Business Outlook Survey shows that companies are sanguine about the impact of the consumption tax hike, but households have lost confidence in Abenomics. 10th December 2013 · 1 min read
Capital Daily US Employment Report likely to prompt December Fed taper 9th December 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Housing will become a drag on economy next year While the recent condo-driven pick-up in housing starts will provide a boost to fourth-quarter residential investment, the slump in new home sales suggests it will be reversed next year, making... 9th December 2013 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Stronger recovery will allow Fed to wind down QE As the fading fiscal drag more than offsets any impact from a modest further rise in long-term interest rates, we expect economic growth to accelerate from 1.8% this year to 2.5% in 2014 and further... 9th December 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Growth in workforce will help keep interest rates down Some have argued that strong job creation will rapidly push down unemployment to the MPC’s 7% threshold. But this overlooks developments in another determinant of the unemployment rate – growth in the... 9th December 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What would the Fed taper mean for government bonds? Fears that the end of the Fed’s purchases will lead to a further surge in Treasury yields are almost certainly overdone. What’s more, even if long-term interest rates do continue to climb in the US... 9th December 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What are the risks of Russia’s consumer debt build-up? Recent comments from Elvira Nabiullina, the Governor of Russia’s central bank, have raised questions about the sustainability of Russia’s boom in consumer lending. While it may be too early to worry... 9th December 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update "Historic" WTO agreement is not such a big deal The deal signed in Bali this weekend was reached only after the bulk of the Doha trade agenda was dropped from the negotiations. We doubt that it will make much difference to world trade volumes and... 9th December 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Taking stock of Saudi Arabia’s migrant crackdown Saudi Arabia’s wide-scale crackdown on illegal migrant workers seems unlikely to have the desired effect of raising the employment of Saudi nationals in the private sector. In the short term, it runs... 9th December 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus How might policymakers react when the EM credit bubble bursts? We have previously identified six emerging markets where credit growth appears to be unsustainable: Brazil, China, Hong Kong, Singapore, Thailand and Turkey. In the event of a crisis, past experience... 9th December 2013 · 1 min read
