Japan Economics Weekly One year of Abenomics – what has changed? A year after the election that returned Mr Abe as prime minister, the interim verdict on his attempts to revitalise the economy must be that much more still needs to be done. The most radical policy... 16th December 2013 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Growing risks of deflation Ample spare capacity and further falls in commodity prices should contain price pressures for the foreseeable future, even in those countries which are now experiencing a strong recovery. Meanwhile... 13th December 2013 · 1 min read
Energy Watch How much control does OPEC still have over oil prices? The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has of course had a significant influence on oil prices since its creation in 1960. However, a combination of internal division and growing... 13th December 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican energy reform sets scene for stronger growth The landmark reform to open up the Mexican oil industry to private sector investment should alleviate concerns that the government’s ambitious reform programme has stalled before it has got off the... 13th December 2013 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Local government debt key challenge for 2014 China's government has sounded a sanguine note about GDP growth at the close of its Economic Work Conference. Monetary policy will remain "prudent" and fiscal policy "proactive" in 2014. In practice... 13th December 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Central Europe to lead the way, Russia & Turkey to disappoint The recovery in Emerging Europe has moved onto a firmer footing in recent months and we expect growth to accelerate over the coming quarters. However, the recovery is likely to be patchy and uneven... 13th December 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Employment (Q3) Q3’s employment data add to evidence that the euro-zone’s labour market is finally stabilising. But a burst of strong job growth is probably a distant prospect. 13th December 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian rate cuts now look unlikely The latest rise in Russian inflation, coupled with mounting concerns over the rapid expansion of consumer credit, mean that even the modest cuts in interest rates that we had pencilled in for early... 13th December 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Interest rate cuts still likely in Chile and Peru in 2014 Policymakers in both Chile and Peru left interest rates unchanged last night, but we continue to expect monetary policy to be loosened next year as economic growth slows. We have pencilled in 50bp of... 13th December 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM GDP growth edging up With almost a complete set of Q3 GDP data now available, we estimate that aggregate EM growth edged up to 4.8% y/y, from 4.7% y/y in Q2. At a regional level, growth accelerated in Emerging Europe and... 13th December 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor WTO agreement unlikely to be a game changer The EM export recovery continued in October, led mainly by net commodity importers. Various indiciators point to gradually improving export conditions, suggesting further gains in the months ahead... 13th December 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How much more help will Greece need? The situation in Greece has improved dramatically over the past year. But while the second bail-out has ensured that the public finances are in a better position than they were, Greece’s public debt... 12th December 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update A look ahead to 2014 elections The election calendar in Latin America is fairly quiet next year and even the two standout events - presidential elections in Colombia (in May) and Brazil (in October) - are likely to be relatively... 12th December 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Are gilts still vulnerable to Fed tapering? The MPC’s forward guidance has continued to be relatively unsuccessful in decoupling markets in the UK from those in the US. However, investors seem to have largely priced in the prospect of tapering... 12th December 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Nov.) The further acceleration in house price inflation to a 13-month high of 3.4% in November, from 3.1%, reflects the pick-up in existing home sales seen earlier this year. Most recently existing home... 12th December 2013 · 1 min read
