With almost a complete set of Q3 GDP data now available, we estimate that aggregate EM growth edged up to 4.8% y/y, from 4.7% y/y in Q2. At a regional level, growth accelerated in Emerging Europe and Emerging Asia, but it fell back in Latin America. And there are some early signs that growth may have picked up a little further in the fourth quarter. For example, the Markit EM manufacturing PMI rose again in November, reaching its highest level since March. Even so, with structural problems weighing on the largest EM economies, growth looks set to remain relatively weak for the foreseeable future.
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