Inflation unlikely to be a major threat in 2014

Inflation across sub-Saharan Africa is likely to remain broadly stable in 2014. Admittedly, the region is more susceptible than other EM regions to food price shocks related to drought. But in the absence of this, inflation is likely to remain at similar rates to 2013. In East and West Africa, we still expect modest monetary tightening later in the year. By contrast, weak economic growth in South Africa means policymakers there will probably delay rate hikes until 2015.