Will falling commodity prices trigger deflation?

We expect ample supply to result in large falls in global oil prices in the next few years. At the same time, the prices of other key commodities, including industrial metals and agriculturals, are likely to remain subdued. This may well be a benign development for those countries not already at risk of widespread deflation, helping to keep interest rates low and boosting activity. But it could tip others, including the weaker economies of the euro-zone, into a more damaging period of falling prices.