EM Valuations Monitor Are emerging market currencies now undervalued? Almost all emerging market currencies have depreciated further against the dollar over the past month. Looking at the real effective exchange rates of emerging markets, 20 of the 24 currencies we... 30th January 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jan.) The broad money supply continues to grow at a rate which should reassure those fearing that the economic recovery might be building up steam too rapidly. Indeed, with bank lending remaining subdued... 30th January 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey & ECB Bank Lending Survey (Jan.) The rise in the European Commission’s Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) in January echoed the message of other closely watched euro-zone survey indicators that the economic recovery is building... 30th January 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Dec.) Household borrowing reached its highest level since July 2008 in December. But while credit conditions appear to be easing, rising borrowing costs and possible intervention by the Bank of England... 30th January 2014 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Dec.13) Net commercial property lending by banks and building societies was negative again in December. But there are signs that this long phase of deleveraging is coming to a close, and positive net lending... 30th January 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Will market turmoil trigger interest rate hikes? The recent market turmoil increases the likelihood of another 50bp interest rate hike in Brazil, but policymakers elsewhere in the region are unlikely to tighten monetary policy unless the currency... 30th January 2014 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Dec.13) Mortgage approvals rose in December according to the Bank of England, although the increase was relatively small. Mortgage lending will see further gains as the economy recovers, but there are few... 30th January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update 2013 GDP data show Poland is an EM bright spot It’s tempting to interpret today’s Polish 2013 GDP data, which showed that growth was as slow last year as it was in 2009, as further evidence of deteriorating growth prospects in the emerging world... 30th January 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What damage would a trust default do? A last minute rescue package allowed investors in the troubled “Credit Equals Gold No. 1” trust product to recoup the principal and the bulk of expected interest from their investment this week. But... 30th January 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update New Zealand rate hike is imminent The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) kept its policy rate unchanged at 2.5% today, but it made clear in its statement that it will be raising rates soon. As long as data releases continue to show... 30th January 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Retail Sales (Dec.) Despite a fall in December, retail sales still recorded a solid rise in the final quarter of last year. While there are some indications that consumers have brought forward demand ahead of April's... 30th January 2014 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Many EM central banks still likely to shrug off currency weakness 30th January 2014 · 1 min read
Energy Watch Energy efficiency gains to constrain EM demand It is often taken as given that oil demand in the developing world will increase exponentially, driven by buoyant economic activity, leading to ever higher oil prices. However, there is huge scope for... 30th January 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed continues gradual QE taper Despite last minute suggestions from some commentators that the emerging markets wobble could prompt a delay, the Fed opted to continue the gradual winding down of its asset purchases today, reducing... 29th January 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: surprise rate hike fails to shore up the rand The South African Reserve Bank became the latest EM central bank to respond to the turmoil in currency markets by hiking interest rates today. However, if the decision to tighten was aimed at shoring... 29th January 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Falling real wages are not all bad news for spending The ongoing decline in real average earnings is often presented as a threat to the recovery. But the flip side of falling real pay has been rising employment. This has supported growth in total real... 29th January 2014 · 1 min read
