UK Housing Market Chart Pack A further rise in housing market activity and house prices Housing market activity and prices are continuing to rise, although there is some tentative evidence that the pace of those gains is now moderating. And with more homes expected to be put on the... 6th February 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB will succumb to pressure for more action soon While the European Central Bank (ECB) disappointed hopes of more policy support today, the growing risk of deflation and dovish signals from President Mario Draghi suggest that further action will... 6th February 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Growth looking strong despite EM sell-off The world economy continued to grow at a decent pace in January. The global composite PMI, for example, is consistent on past form with world GDP rising by around 4%. Moreover, we doubt that the... 6th February 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s fiscal position still a major concern At first glance, the interim Egyptian government seems to have made some progress in bringing the country’s dire public finances back under control. However, the apparent improvement can largely be... 6th February 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Rising rents to boost core inflation Low vacancy rates, falling unemployment and faster earnings growth will drive the rents inflation higher over the next year or two. In addition to signs that wage growth is poised to accelerate, this... 6th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech Bank hints at end to FX intervention in early 2015 Following today’s Czech rate-setting meeting, Governor Singer commented that the MPC could end its policy of FX intervention to weaken the koruna by early next year. With the economy recovering and... 6th February 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Dec.) The surprisingly large increase in December's trade deficit provides further evidence supporting our view that Canada's economy isn't benefitting fully from the steadily improving US economy. 6th February 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Dec.) The rebound in the monthly trade deficit to $38.7bn in December, from $34.6bn, means that fourth-quarter GDP growth will likely be revised down slightly to about 2.9% annualised in the second estimate... 6th February 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Currency concerns force Bank of Ghana to act The decision by the Bank of Ghana to aggressively hike rates today, combined with the FX restrictions announced yesterday, should bring some temporary relief to the cedi. However, a lack of progress... 6th February 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC on hold for a long time, whatever the new guidance The MPC’s decision to leave policy on hold today was almost certainly the last to be taken under the unemployment-focused forward guidance adopted just six months ago. But whatever replaces it... 6th February 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: BANREP to allow further peso weakness In contrast to other parts of the emerging world, Colombian policymakers have welcomed the recent depreciation of the peso with open arms. We suspect that a further decline in the peso would be... 6th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Manufacturing PMIs highlight EM divergence Emerging market (EM) manufacturing appears to have slowed last month but, perhaps more importantly, there is a widening divergence between countries. Activity seems to be picking up in the more open... 6th February 2014 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Jan.14) The Halifax reported a large rise in house prices of 1.1% in January, more than reversing a slight fall in December. But there is no sign that house price gains are accelerating, which would typically... 6th February 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Rates to be kept low in the Philippines to support reconstruction Today’s decision by the central bank in the Philippines (BSP) to keep interest rates on hold at a record low of just 3.5% came as no surprise. With the recent increase in inflation likely to prove... 6th February 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Industrial production recovery to boost regional growth The full set of Emerging Asia GDP data for the final quarter of 2013 is yet to be released, but our tracker suggests the region as a whole struggled for momentum. Weak industrial production was a key... 6th February 2014 · 1 min read
