Asia Economics Update Export sector to drive Malaysia’s growth The acceleration in Malaysia’s economy in the final quarter of 2013 reinforces our view that the central bank is likely to tighten monetary policy sooner rather than later. While policy tightening... 12th February 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Sedlabanki holds, but will hike later this year Although the Icelandic central bank left its policy rate unchanged today, the Sedlabanki gave a strong indication that it is likely to tighten policy later this year. 12th February 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Zambia’s fiscal position a major concern Zambia’s fiscal position has deteriorated markedly over the past few years despite the tailwind of high copper prices, which have boosted revenues. A relatively low burden of public debt means that a... 12th February 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Jan.) China's exports did far better than expected in January. Over-invoicing as a way to evade capital controls is being touted as one explanation but we can't find much evidence of that – indeed, if... 12th February 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Machinery Orders (Dec.) The sharp fall in machinery orders in December casts doubt on whether the fledgling recovery in business investment will continue. What's more, overall investment is set to weaken in coming months as... 12th February 2014 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Sedlabanki holds, but will hike later this year Although the Icelandic central bank left its policy rate unchanged today, the Sedlabanki gave a strong indication that it is likely to tighten policy later this year. 12th February 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Federal government will need every bit of extra fiscal room It seems almost certain now that the Federal government will meet its timetable for eliminating the budget deficit before fiscal year 2015-16, which will give it the wiggle room it needed to deliver... 11th February 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Yellen indicates that the Fed will continue with QE taper The two key takeaways from new Fed Chair Janet Yellen's first congressional testimony on monetary policy is that neither the recent drop off in the pace of employment growth nor the turmoil in... 11th February 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Is Tunisia really on the path to recovery? It’s still early days, but we think that political developments in Tunisia over the past few months provide reasons to be optimistic about the country’s economic outlook. 11th February 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Indicators point to labour market strength The latest improvements in small business hiring and labour market turnover indicate that the fall in the unemployment rate may be a more accurate gauge of labour market slack than the Fed currently... 11th February 2014 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack Emerging market assets suffer further losses Like most other emerging market assets, dollar-denominated bonds have performed poorly over the past month. But they have at least fared better than they did during last summer’s sell-off. Spreads on... 11th February 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Strong demand to limit grain price falls Strong demand for grains is likely to support prices over the first half of the year. However, large harvests in South America and the US should put downward pressure on prices as the year progresses. 11th February 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Falling aluminium premiums should support prices We believe that the recent surge in US aluminium price premiums will be temporary as it reflects a regional supply bottleneck rather than a fundamentally tight global market. Supply will inevitably... 11th February 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What difference will revamped forward guidance have on Gilts? The Bank of England looks set to overhaul its forward guidance as part of tomorrow’s Inflation Report. But we doubt a revamped version will have a greater influence on the pricing of Gilts than the... 11th February 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African labour market conditions remain tough On the face of it, the fall in South Africa’s unemployment rate to a two-year low in Q4 is encouraging, but much of this can be explained by a rise in temporary employment in sectors that deliver low... 11th February 2014 · 1 min read
