Asia Economics Update India’s auto industry highlights weakness of domestic demand Domestic demand in India remains lacklustre, overshadowing the encouraging performance of exports. Trends in the auto industry provide a case in point, as healthy passenger vehicle exports have not... 18th February 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Is Portugal the next Ireland? Some of the conditions that preceded Ireland’s strong investment market recovery a couple of years ago are now evident in Portugal. GDP is expanding at a decent rate, while the deficit reduction... 18th February 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan again signals readiness to ease further The Bank of Japan’s decision to extend and expand the special loan facilities that were due to expire next month is a largely symbolic move that will not have a significant impact on financial... 18th February 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: economic growth too slow to bring down unemployment The Egyptian economy has shown signs of recovering in recent months but this has yet to feed through to the labour market. Crucially, GDP growth is still below the rates of around 4-5% that are needed... 18th February 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Jan.) January’s consumer prices figures showed that inflationary pressures are continuing to ease steadily and so presented another reason to be upbeat about the outlook for GDP growth this year. 18th February 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Housing starts likely to fall further this year Although housing starts have declined over the past two years, the current six-month annualised trend of 191,456 units is arguably still above demographic requirements. With weakening home sales and... 17th February 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Labour Market Monitor (Feb.) Wednesday’s labour market figures seem likely to indicate that there is still considerable slack in the economy which will keep inflationary pressures subdued for some time to come. Indeed, by our... 17th February 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina Activity Indicator (Feb 14.) Our Argentina Activity Indicator (AAI) suggests that the economy grew by around 3% y/y in the final quarter of last year – broadly unchanged from the pace of growth in Q3. But this pre-dates last... 17th February 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Q4 GDP not as bad as headlines imply Although the preliminary estimate of GDP growth in the final quarter of last year fell short of expectations, it is not the major blow to the credibility of “Abenomics” that some have suggested. 17th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What next for “frontier” currencies? “Frontier” currencies have been the hardest hit in the latest bout of EM financial market turmoil. Looking ahead, we think further exchange rate weakness is likely to be concentrated in those... 17th February 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will the recent falls in euro-zone yields continue this year? Broad-based economic growth across the euro-zone in Q4 last year clearly helps to explain the recent widespread falls in property yields. We doubt that GDP growth across the region will suddenly surge... 17th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Uneven recovery in lending conditions Our latest Banking Heat Map shows that lending conditions are diverging across the region. Credit growth is gathering pace in countries with healthier banking sectors, such as the Czech Republic... 17th February 2014 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update What measure of earnings should be compared to house prices? If the share of homes bought using the joint income of a two-earner household has trended up over time, it is possible that a measure of the house price-to earnings ratio that uses average individual... 17th February 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand’s economy to struggle amid unresolved political crisis Thailand’s economy was not as badly damaged by the outbreak of political unrest in Q4 last year as we had feared, but with the disruption escalating since late December, much worse probably lies ahead... 17th February 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response GDP (Q4 Preliminary) Weak Q4 GDP figures show that the surge in spending ahead of the consumption tax hike has yet to come. 17th February 2014 · 1 min read
