Bank of Japan Watch BoJ unlikely to be panicked into additional easing The Bank of Japan will almost certainly maintain its current policy settings at the conclusion of the two-day Board meeting next Tuesday (18 th). This means no change to the asset purchase programme... 14th February 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Making sense of the weather effect Our best guess is that the severe weather has played a key role in the apparent deterioration in the incoming economic data for December and January. With much of the country currently digging out... 13th February 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Pending home sales tumble again The recovery in housing market activity has taken a knock. Existing home sales edged up in December, but the pending home sales index recorded a worrying slump. New home sales fell substantially in... 13th February 2014 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack New guidance fails to refocus gilt market on UK outlook Once again, UK asset prices appear to have been influenced more by overseas events than domestic developments. Despite further signs that the UK economy is growing at a faster rate than the rest of... 13th February 2014 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Property yields continue to edge lower Investment demand for commercial property in 2013 as a whole was relatively strong in the UK and Emerging Europe. But it weakened in Scandinavia, despite signs of improving economic fundamentals and... 13th February 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Jan.) Some of the weakness in retail sales in January was probably due to the bad weather. Nonetheless, it looks as though GDP growth in both the fourth quarter of last year and the first quarter of this... 13th February 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Stock market valuation – should we adjust for payout policy? One argument made by US equity bulls is that Shiller’s cyclically-adjusted price/earnings ratio (CAPE) exaggerates the extent to which the stock market is overvalued because it does not account for a... 13th February 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Could devaluations be on the cards in the non-oil economies? Some of the largest falls in emerging market currencies in recent weeks have come in countries where exchange rates are tightly managed and foreign exchange reserves are low. On this basis, the MENA... 13th February 2014 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update What would an early rate rise mean for property? Our view is that Bank Rate is on hold until late next year. But even if that is wrong and the monetary policy tightening cycle begins this year, market interest rates and the health of the economy... 13th February 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update A sluggish end to another disappointing year for Brazil The release of retail sales data for December allows us to have a first stab at estimating growth in Brazil the final quarter of last year. We reckon that the economy expanded at an annual rate of... 13th February 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jan 14.) The annual growth rate of the money supply seems to be levelling off, and is likely to remain broadly stable in coming months. By contrast, bank lending may still accelerate further as loan demand... 13th February 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa GDP Tracker suggests pick up in Q4 Our GDP Tracker suggests that the South African economy picked up pace in the final quarter of last year. Nevertheless, full-year growth for 2013 is likely to have been the second worst outturn in 15... 13th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Current account deficits narrow, Turkey an outlier Turkey’s current account deficit widened sharply at the end of last year, but the recent tightening of monetary policy means it could now start to narrow substantially. Elsewhere in the region... 13th February 2014 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (Jan. 13) The January RICS survey provides some tentative evidence that housing market activity is no longer accelerating. But with housing market conditions still very tight, house prices will see further... 13th February 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Rates hikes in Sweden remain a distant prospect The Swedish Riksbank reiterated at its meeting today that it does not expect to raise interest rates until early next year. But we think that the expected start date of its tightening cycle will... 13th February 2014 · 1 min read
