Africa Economics Update South African inflation to breach target range (again) South African inflation rose in January and the effects of a weak rand means it is likely to accelerate above the upper bound of the Reserve Bank’s 3-6% target range again. This is likely to spur the... 19th February 2014 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Has the retail occupier market turned for the better? Anecdotal evidence suggests that, in general, the worst has passed for retail occupier markets. This is yet to become absolutely apparent in the IPD data, but at least more segments are now recording... 19th February 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile cuts rates and signals further easing to come The Central Bank of Chile (BCC) cut interest rates last night and signalled that further easing is possible in the months ahead. However, with inflation likely to edge up over the coming months, we... 19th February 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Spending recovery looks sustainable After falling for six years in a row, real pay should finally rise this year, providing a more sustainable foundation for further robust growth in real consumer spending. Rising employment and a... 18th February 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jan.) Broad money growth appears to have stabilised, with our measure of the M3 aggregate rebounding slightly to 4.6% in January, from 4.4%. (See Chart below.) Elsewhere, the slowdown in the growth rate of... 18th February 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update How are Chinese financing deals affecting the copper market? One source of relief for copper producers has been the recent strength of China’s copper imports. This has been somewhat surprising given that other indicators point to weakening Chinese economic... 18th February 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Focus How will UK equities fare in 2014 and 2015? UK equities underperformed other major developed markets significantly in 2013 and have fared no better than their American and European counterparts since the start of the year. But we think this... 18th February 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Latin America’s wasted decade Concerns about widening current account deficits have been a key factor driving the recent turbulence in financial markets in Latin America. But while the deterioration in the current account... 18th February 2014 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor Relative valuation of Japanese equities at 30-year low The earnings multiple of equities in Japan has fallen sharply since the start of the year. In contrast, those of the US have held broadly steady. The upshot is that the 12-month trailing price... 18th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s central bank could still cut interest rates further Having lowered interest rates by a little more than the market expected today, the Hungarian central bank’s post-meeting communiqué (unusually) didn’t give much away about the outlook for monetary... 18th February 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Banking union: a step rather than a leap forward The euro-zone’s proposed banking union will help to strengthen the region’s financial system. But the benefits will be slow to feed into the real economy. And the current framework for banking union... 18th February 2014 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack No shift of monetary stance January’s surge in bank lending in China does not signal any change in policy stance. Bank lending is always strong in January. Looked at in y/y terms, last month’s increase in loan growth was barely... 18th February 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Quality over quantity for Chinese farmers, but supply still ample The announcement that China’s government will place more emphasis on food safety and quality, rather than just quantity, might suggest that the country will have to import significantly more grain... 18th February 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Feb.) February’s ZEW survey gave mixed signals, suggesting that whilst the economic situation is improving slowly, investors are losing some optimism about the future. 18th February 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bad weather unlikely to have major effect on output Adverse weather in recent days is unlikely to have a major effect on output, as most of it occurred at the weekend and plant closures are unlikely to last long. Historical experience also indicates... 18th February 2014 · 1 min read
