Asia Economics Update Korean government growth target unlikely to be met President Park Geun-hye’s plans to raise trend growth to 4% by 2017 are unlikely to succeed. In fact, we see trend growth in Korea slowing to around 2% over the next decade. 25th February 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Stalling talks set back hopes for TPP as catalyst for reform Slow progress in the talks aimed at setting up the Trans-Pacific Partnership has set back hopes that the trade deal could be a catalyst for structural reform in Japan. Japan’s high tariffs on many... 25th February 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Feb & Q1.) February’s strong CBI Distributive Trades Survey should sweep away any concerns fostered by January’s fall in the official measure of retail sales volumes that the recovery in retail spending is... 25th February 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How much should we worry about the weather? Extreme weather conditions have made the economic outlook in many countries less clear in recent months. However, experience suggests that the impact on GDP and inflation will probably turn out to be... 25th February 2014 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update What impact will the Mortgage Market Review have on lending? The weight of evidence suggests that most mortgage lenders are already implementing the Mortgage Market Review regulations, so we doubt mortgage lending will see a sharp drop come 26th April. But the... 25th February 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Q4 growth accelerates but 2013 a year to forget Despite the acceleration in Q4, the South African economy grew at its second slowest pace in 15 years in 2013. Looking ahead, a number of domestic and external constraints suggest that growth will... 25th February 2014 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response BBA Mortgage Lending (Jan.) The recovery in the mortgage market continued into 2014, with the largest month-on-month rise in approvals for house purchase since September. Mortgage approvals will see further gains over this year... 25th February 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Calm returns to Lat. Am. markets Following the turmoil experienced during the first few weeks of this year, financial markets across much of Latin America have stabilised over the past month. In most countries, bond yields have... 25th February 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Small Business Confidence (Feb.) The modest fall in small business confidence in February will likely be followed by a further deterioration in coming months as conditions are set to weaken after April's sales tax hike. 25th February 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update More volatility ahead for the renminbi The recent abrupt fall in the renminbi is best seen as a salvo in a battle between policymakers who believe that China’s currency is close to its fair value and market participants who don’t... 25th February 2014 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Falling unemployment rate forces Fed into rethink With the unemployment rate falling to 6.6% in January, leaving it only trivially above the 6.5% threshold, the Fed will soon need to update its forward guidance on when it might begin to raise the fed... 24th February 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru: GDP growth picks up but devil is in the detail Peru’s economy picked up pace in the final quarter of last year. But the improvement in the headline GDP figure masks concerns about the underlying balance of growth. While domestic demand remains... 24th February 2014 · 1 min read
Energy Watch Political risk and bad weather keep prices high After calming down towards the end of last year, political protests and disruption in key producer countries have re-emerged as a key factor driving oil prices higher. What’s more, the extreme cold in... 24th February 2014 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor World trade finished 2013 on a downbeat note The volume of world exports fell by 0.4% m/m in December according to data published on Friday by the CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis. This follows zero growth in November and... 24th February 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will a shift in Fed policy send profits into a tailspin? A rise in borrowing costs triggered by less accommodative monetary policy is likely to have an adverse effect on the profits of increasingly-indebted US companies. But we doubt margins will collapse. 24th February 2014 · 1 min read
