China Economics Update Can private investment shake-up China's state sector? Policymakers are moving to encourage private investors to play a larger role in China's state sector. However, unless the government is willing to relax control over state firms, investors will have... 28th February 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Is QQE working? Almost one year after the launch of Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE) by the Bank of Japan, the policy is working as well as could reasonably be expected. However, despite initial signs of... 28th February 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Retail Sales, Industrial Production & Consumer Prices (Jan.) Today's data confirm that the economy is picking up speed ahead of the consumption tax hike. However, the first fall in inflation since the start of QQE shows that the BoJ still has more work to do... 28th February 2014 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish & Danish GDP (Q4 13) The surge in Swedish GDP in Q4 confirms that the economy remains one of the region’s strongest performers. But while it has prompted us to revise up our GDP forecast we still think that growth will be... 28th February 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt holds rates, but cuts could come back on to the agenda The Egyptian central bank’s decision to leave interest rates on hold for the second meeting in a row might suggest that the easing cycle of the past half a year has come to an end. However, given that... 27th February 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack EM turbulence spreads to Africa The turmoil in EM financial markets over the past six months has spread to a number of economies in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), taking some of the gloss off the region’s upbeat growth story in the... 27th February 2014 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Payrolls once again hit by bad weather A third consecutive month of weak payroll growth in February would raise speculation that the Fed will pause the tapering of its asset purchases. But because any weakness this month was probably due... 27th February 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Low valuation of emerging market assets unlikely to persist The valuations of many emerging market assets are now at multi-year lows relative to those of developed markets. While there remain a number of reasons to be cautious about the outlook for emerging... 27th February 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Jan.) The 1.0% m/m decline in durable goods orders was mainly due to a drop back in the notoriously volatile commercial aircraft component. More generally, there is some evidence that the growth rate of... 27th February 2014 · 1 min read
UK Markets Outlook Monetary policy to remain a support for asset prices We doubt that UK asset prices will be undermined significantly by the onset of tighter monetary policy in the UK or overseas. Admittedly, history suggests otherwise – the global monetary tightening... 27th February 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Asian currencies rebound, rupiah leads the way Following sharp falls in January, Asian currencies and equity markets have rebounded over the past month. Meanwhile, government bond yields have been broadly flat. 27th February 2014 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Another small rate cut? While the euro-zone activity data has continued to show some improvement, the combination of very low inflation, the strong euro and falling liquidity in the banking sector has maintained pressure on... 27th February 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: stronger growth in Q4 unlikely to be sustained Fourth quarter growth in Brazil was stronger than even we had expected, but was driven by a rebound in exports that will be difficult to sustain over the coming quarters. We continue to expect the... 27th February 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will Spain’s and Italy’s bond spreads continue to fall? The yield spreads of Spanish and Italian government bonds over German Bunds began to fall sharply following the announcement of the ECB’s Outright Monetary Transactions programme in the summer of 2012... 27th February 2014 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Benign inflation outlook taking centre stage again The prospects for inflation are once again becoming the key factor driving monetary policy decisions by the Fed and the Bank of England, as both central banks have been forced to re-think their... 27th February 2014 · 1 min read
